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Thomas Spencer Profile picture
@ThomasASpencer
Jan 19, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Apparently the Department of Commerce has recommended that purchase of alcohol and tobacco be restricted to one bottle / carton at Indian airports in order to reduce the trade deficit.
Can I remind them that net alcohol imports were 0.09% of the total trade deficit in 2018/19
And that net tobacco exports (India is a net exporter of tobacco products) equated to 0.5% of the trade deficit.

And also that I found this out using ... Department of Commerce data.
For full transparency: here's a table with all of this and the source.

#Evidencebasedpolicy Image

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More from @ThomasASpencer

Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Mar 1
Today we published our estimate of CO2 emissions in 2023. The bad news is that they rose again, by 1.1%.

The good news is that there are lots of causes for optimism if you look underneath the headline numbers.

A quick 🧵

iea.org/reports/co2-em…
Clean energy technologies grew strongly in 2023. Solar PV, driven by China, grew 420 GW and wind around 120 GW.

That's another ~550 TWh of clean electricity coming online this year (a lot of this capacity came online at the end of 2023, and will only be felt fully in 2024) Image
Extreme weather, notably very bad droughts, and continued Covid reopening in the aviation sector and China's transport sector drove around 70% of the increase in emissions at the global level. Image
Read 7 tweets
Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Nov 15, 2022
1/n
 Today the @IEA released a special report on the role of coal in net zero transitions. With this thread I want to highlight some of the key findings of the report.
Thread
iea.org/news/achieving…
2/n
 Firstly, energy transitions are not and cannot be just about coal. In the central scenario in our report, advanced economies act strongly this decade already on emissions from oil and gas, as well as coal.
3/n
 But for three reasons, we need to focus on coal:
1.It’s the largest source of CO2, and far from declining
2.It’s increasingly under pressure in electricity
3.Coal is important for local jobs and development
So what are the key messages?
Read 9 tweets
Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Dec 28, 2021
1/10
Back in India, back reading about India.
It's time for another 10 tweet review.

Book: Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India

Author: Rukmini S. @Rukmini
2/10
Firstly, this book gets an A-plus for the pun (visual and titular) that you get right from the cover.

@Rukmini is a data journalist from Chennai, one of the field's Indian pioneers and a leading voice in interpreting India's covid experience.
3/10
Her book brings together four key characteristics of a good data journalist.
First, she has a sensitivity to the importance of the process of data production. A fascinating description of how all is not what it seems in data on sexual assualt is a case in point.
Read 10 tweets
Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Feb 23, 2021
1/n Today we published a model-based assessment of the grid integration costs of VRE.
Note: we only look at profile and balancing costs, not network costs.
Here I summarize the results in 6 easy tweets.
2/n
 In all scenarios we study, a short-term 'optimal' level of VRE is substantially higher than current levels, in the order of 40% of total generation.
This is robust to assumptions on demand, storage cost, cost of capital, retirement of end of life assets, etc.
3/n
 The substitution of expensive energy with cheap VRE allows total system costs to decline as we approach 'optimal VRE', even as total system-wide fixed costs go up.
Basic point: cheap energy + expensive capacity is a winning combination for substantially higher VRE.
Read 8 tweets
Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Jan 4, 2021
1/n
 We ended 2020 with the news that India's power demand cross 180 GW for the first time. Unusually, this occurred in December, when power demand usually peaks is in summer?

What is going on here? Is it sign of the economic recovery?

Short thread.
2/n
 Firstly, as I have been repeating, we need to look carefully at both base effect and time period when looking at demand growth.

Monthly demand smooths out daily fluctuations, and comparing 2020 against both 2019 and 2018 shows the importance of the base effect. 👇 Image
3/n
 Compared against 2018, 2020 monthly demand has registered only a few months of growth since the lockdown effectively ended in June.

Because of the collapse in demand in the second half of 2019, the picture looks more optimistic if we compare against 2019 (low base effect)
Read 9 tweets
Thomas Spencer Profile picture
Dec 21, 2020
1/n
Last week TERI released its flagship report on the prospects for H2 in India.

The full report is here. bit.ly/3poYA2n

At 140 pages, I can't summarize the whole thing in a single thread, but I can do a series of threads.

Today's: H2 in the Indian power sector.
2/n
 We do a bottom up assessment to 2050 of power demand across all sectors, including direct and indirect electrification (for electrolytic H2 production).

In the low carbon scenario, power demand reaches as much as 6200 TWh by 2050, with almost 1000 TWh of that for H2. 👇
3/n
 This would consume a very substantial chunk of India's maximum estimated technical potential for onshore wind and solar PV. 👇
The required rate of supply growth and land footprint may be challenging!

This reinforces the message: direct electrification wherever possible.
Read 12 tweets

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