Lots of questions about the transitional period: what is it, why have it, what good does it do etc... So here is a short thread summarising the key points (drawn from my full analysis as published in Common Market Law Review):
1) in early days of withdrawal negotiations, EU27 & UK each suggested some form of transition. But final model was formally requested by UK Government in "Florence Speech" of Sept 2017: UK technically leaves EU, but nothing should actually change for fixed period of time, please
2) Subject to some exceptions, e.g. EU states can decide not to extradite own nationals to UK anymore even during transition. Yet main difference = UK as a third country must obey all EU rules as if still a member, but without any institutional representation, votes or influence
3) hence "vassal state" objections by Tory right [most later voted for it anyway]. UK attempts to change terms as laid down by EU bore only limited fruit, e.g. yes to opt out from certain foreign policy decisions; but no concessions on free movement / ability to veto new EU rules
4) transition raises many interesting questions. E.g. is it even lawful for EU to treat third country as if still Member State for vast range of purposes? E.g. would rest of world voluntarily agree to EU request that UK be treated as if still covered by existing trade etc deals?
5) but main point of political / public interest = will transition successfully serve its intended purposes?
Of which there are 3: two explicit in Florence speech; plus another one evident from everything UK government has done since and especially under the Johnson regime...
Of which there are 3: two explicit in Florence speech; plus another one evident from everything UK government has done since and especially under the Johnson regime...
6) 1st purpose: give more time for UK & EU to make logistical preparations for full consequences of withdrawal (having started from base point of zero). In end, protracted Art 50 negotiations did that anyhow. But transition still provides another 11 months on top. So "half-tick"
7) 2nd goal: provide bridge between life as MS + life as third country under new trade & security deal = everyone only has to suffer one major upheaval rather than 2. But UK refusal to extend transition = no longer realistic! If UK really wants any deal, will mean 2 major changes
8) 3rd (implicit but obvious) tactic: transition creates space and time between act of withdrawal and its true / full consequences - offering Tories plausible deniability to avoid accountabliity & responsibility. "Brexit got done" but when it inevitably hits fan: not our fault!!!
9) And crystal clear from cynical behaviour of main Leavers, as well as gullible reaction of sheep-like supporters, that's exactly how game is now being played. January 2021= heading for equivalent of no deal at all; but nothing to do with Brexit, all someone else's (EU) fault...
