How will the Iowa caucus snafu impact the race for the Democratic presidential nomination?
@TheEconomist data journalist @gelliottmorris and Sabato's Crystal Ball Managing Editor @kkondik answered this question and more in the new episode of my #OnTopic podcast, out today!
Check out past episodes, learn about our guests, submit feedback, and learn how to gain access to more content at our website (link below).
In particular, I'm interested to hear how you want #OnTopic to cover the upcoming election. Submit feedback here: ontopicpodcast.com
1/ Donald Trump’s testimony today is not moving forward a purely legal strategy.
His legal team’s strategy was always defensive and focused on limiting liability elsewhere, which is why he took the Fifth hundreds of times in his deposition.
2/ You don’t frequently take the Fifth in a civil case if you plan to win.
Trump’s team likely saw the need to essentially concede defeat here and mitigate collateral damage coming from a loss.
But Trump’s ego has forced a change in strategy. But it’s not a *legal* strategy.
3/ You don’t attack the judge constantly if you want to win the trial.
The primary focus today is about PR/spin/politics. Trump wants to convince his followers that the trial is rigged and that he’s a victim, not a fraudster.
THREAD: Why did the Hunter Biden plea deal fall apart?
1/ Earlier today, during a hearing when Hunter Biden was expected to plead guilty, the plea deal was scuttled after the judge asked whether he would be immune from prosecution for other possible crimes as a result of the deal. nytimes.com/live/2023/07/2…
2/ After prosecutors said that it would not do so, Hunter Biden’s lawyers said that the deal was off.
Why did they do that?
To borrow the name of my podcast with @AshaRangappa_, it’s complicated.
1/ The Michigan AG’s charges against fake electors are more important than you might realize.
Our electoral system is run at the state level, and as we saw in the last election, there is room for bad actors to get to subvert the process.
These charges will be a real deterrent.
2/ Remember that the “fake electors” aren’t billionaires. They’re not raising money off of these criminal charges. These charges won’t lead to fortune or fame.
They’re GOP party operatives who will be devastated by an indictment like a typical person is.
3/ Getting indicted isn’t fun. It is a stressful, costly, and humiliating experience.
Just like the charges of individual January 6th insurrectionists, these charges may deter foot soldiers who would consider joining an effort to overturn the *next* election.
THREAD: What should we make of today's Ripple #XRP decision?
1/ Earlier this afternoon, federal judge Analisa Torres issued a long-awaited decision in SEC v. Ripple, a case brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission against Ripple Labs, a company that issues a token called #XRP.
Why should you care about this decision?
2/ Right now, the U.S. has no established regulatory framework for crypto. Other countries, like the UK, are working to create new, comprehensive regulatory regimes.
In the U.S., Congress hasn't done that, so the courts have to sort this out using existing law.
THREAD: What should we make of the meeting between Trump’s legal team and federal prosecutors?
1/ Today CBS News and other outlets reported that Trump’s legal team met with DOJ prosecutors regarding the Mar-a-Lago case, which is close to a potential indictment.
Notably the meeting did not involve the Attorney General or Deputy AG, but involved others at DOJ.
2/ This sort of meeting shortly before indictment (often called a “pitch meeting”) is commonplace.
In the office I worked at, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Chicago, *every* defense counsel in every case was afforded the opportunity to “pitch” as a matter of policy.
THREAD: What should we make of news that Donald Trump deliberately misled his own attorneys regarding classified documents?
1/ Today ABC News described the evidence that DOJ presented to Judge Beryl Howell that led to her recent ruling that the crime-fraud exception applied to otherwise privileged communications between Trump and his attorneys.
2/ Specifically, the Judge found that Special Counsel Jack Smith presented compelling preliminary evidence that Trump "knowingly and deliberately misled his own attorneys" about his retention of classified materials after leaving office.