Thread by @areacode416

January market charts are up. Blog post has a few anecdotes in line with the nuttiness I was seeing and hearing. 🌰🥜 And of course my thoughts on what I saw in this month's data, as well as couple of bonus charts in this thread. /1
areacode416homes.com/january-2020-c…

Here's the 20-year CAGR on average prices for 416 freeholds (houses) and condos. They're pretty close right now. Houses 7.28%, Condos 7.19%. /2

The 10-year CAGRs are about 1% higher for both, so I would expect a little "regression to the mean" as you can see clearly happened after houses reached a peak of 10.93% in March 2017. /3

Here's the 5-year CAGRs, which would of course be a bit more volatile. You can see houses have come back down off their 13.90% high towards the 7% long term average. But look at condos - just reached a recent-year high of nearly 12%. What next? /4

Here's how low condo inventory is right now. It's 30% lower than last year, and 45% below the 7-year average. #tight /5

Freehold active listings are down around the same amount (-33%) versus last year but that works out to "just" 13% lower than the 7 year average (163 less listings). Condos works out to 1,119 less listings to choose from. /6

🚨New chart this month🚨 (at least that I'm publishing - I've been using it myself for awhile). Tracks the price gap between condo apartments and the three main housing types (detached, semi, row). /7

Anyway, as usual check the blog post for more charts and analysis, and a link to the full set of charts. /8