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Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
@Weather_West
Feb 13, 2020 • 5 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
New research led by Xingying Huang on simulating extreme U.S. Pacific Coast #AtmosphericRiver storms. We found that our high resolution weather model configuration yielded substantial improvements in extreme precip representation. (1/3) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10… #CAwx #CAwater Image
We selected extreme AR events between 1980-2017, evaluating model performance specifically for the *most* intense precipitation in *wettest* regions. This modeling framework forms basis for forthcoming work on #AtmosphericRivers in warming climate. (2/3) #CAwater #CAwx Image
One selected storm was Dec. 12 1995 event in N. California, which brought a violent windstorm to portions of SF Bay Area (100+ mph gusts!). This was actually a formative weather event of my childhood--it's one of the reasons why I'm an atmospheric scientist today! (3/3) #CAwx Image
@BayAreaBWER @SJSUmeteorology @ggweather An aside: there was surprisingly little information on this event online or in peer-reviewed literature, given its magnitude. I remember literally hiding under bed--at my parents' request--as windows shattered & trees snapped off at the base, amidst almost continuous lightning.
This satisfied a personal curiosity of mine: what the heck happened near San Rafael, CA on Dec 12, 1995? As far as I can tell, there must have been a locally-enhanced severe convective cell embedded in an already extreme cold front. Rare for CA, but that's what evidence suggests!

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More from @Weather_West

Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Jul 16
The discourse surrounding precipitation changes in a warming climate (both public discussion and even scientific one at times) is complicated by widespread conflation of changes in averages vs extremes (and also actual vs *potential* evaporation/evaporative demand). [Thread]
Increased temperatures rapidly raises "ceiling" on both precipitation & evaporation intensity--but same is *not* true for typical/average values of either! Regional mean precip can increase or decrease with warming, and actual evaporation is constrained by local H20 availability.
This is the basis for "Expanding Atmospheric Sponge" effect that we coined to help visualize practical implications stemming from more heavier downpours (i.e., flash floods) & also more extreme evaporative demand (e.g., faster-developing droughts, more intense wildfires). Snapshot of graphic from Swain et al. 2025 review paper describing "Expanding Atmospheric Sponge Effect."
Read 19 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Jul 13
And now: A thread regarding my thoughts on "1.5°C"--not only as a Paris Agreement target, but also re: relevance to recent #climate events & overlaps (or not) w/geophysical realities. (This was originally written as a response to a journalist, who used excerpts in their article.) Time series of Earth's global average temperature over time, between 1850 and 2024, as calculated by the Berkeley Earth research group. It depicts the Earth's average temperature as having risen to near or above 1.5C above the late 1800s average by 2023-2024.
First and foremost, it's absolutely true that every tenth of a degree matters; each increment of global warming will bring a relatively larger increase in adverse societal and ecological impacts than the last.
This statement is not so much about rate of warming itself, but a reflection of growing recognition that Earth system (especially the biosphere and cryosphere) can respond non-linearly, and sometimes abruptly or even irreversibly on human timescales, to gradual shifts in climate.
Read 30 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Jul 5
There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.
As always, this is not to blame the victims! Quite the opposite; this truly was a sudden & massive event and occurred at worst possible time (middle of the night). But problem, once again, was not a bad weather prediction: it was one of "last mile" forecast/warning dissemination.
I am not aware of the details surrounding staffing levels at the local NWS offices involved, nor how that might have played into timing/sequence of warnings involved. But I do know that locations that flooded catastrophically had at least 1-2+ hours of direct warning from NWS.
Read 14 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Jun 16
Some perspective on recent warmth over past month in California. Many folks, most of whom live within ~20 miles of the coast, have been asking: where's all this hot weather I keep hearing about? Well...the short answer is inland & across hills/mountains. [Thread] #CAwx #CAfire Map from climatetoolbox.org depicting observed temperature departures from average over the past 30 days. In this map, departures from average for daily average temperatures are plotted across the western U.S. (with dark red colors depicting record/near-record warmth and blue colors depicting below average temperatures).
In fact, the past ~30 days have actually been near record-warm (yes, yet again!) across a substantial portion of the foothills & higher mountains ringing Central Valley, plus the Imperial Valley (which is a very hot place to begin with!) However... #CAwx #CAfire
However, along the coast (and inland up to 20 miles or so, a bit farther near gaps in coastal mountains through which marine influence spills), temperatures have NOT been very warm, and in some cases have even been COOLER than the (recent warmer climate) average! #CAwx #CAfire
Read 9 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Apr 17
Amer. Meteorological Soc. (@ametsoc) just issued a (fully justified) dire statement regarding rapidly accelerating & potentially disastrous efforts to decimate weather & climate enterprise in U.S. If implemented, this would cost many lives & cause major/ long-term economic harm.
@ametsoc "In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut, with unknown — yet almost certainly disastrous — consequences for public safety and economic health."
@ametsoc "If you believe in the importance of NOAA research for maintaining and improving NWS forecasts and services to the nation then *THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW*. Reach out to your elected representatives and share your concerns."
Read 8 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Feb 28
The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within #NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service (#NWS), is profoundly alarming.
1/11
It appears that staff fired today include meteorologists, data scientists responsible for maintaining weather predictive models, and technicians responsible for maintaining the nation’s weather instrumentation network (among many others).
2/11
The U.S. NWS is a truly world-class meteorological predictive service, perhaps singularly so. Its cost of operation is only ~$3-4/yr per taxpayer—equivalent to a single cup of coffee—and yields a truly remarkable return on investment (at least 10 to 1, and perhaps 100 to 1).
3/11
Read 11 tweets

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