Thread by @JJHTweets

1/ Are you sitting comfortably? I know @DeborahMeaden enjoys threads like this...

Just taking a quick look to see what Boris Johnson has promised the UK this year.

Starting in a couple of weeks time the discussions with the EU for the new Comprehensive Trade Deal begin.

2/ from March to November, discussion will be carried out to finalise all the legal texts of the new UK-EU Comprehensive Trade Agreement. This final text will need to be scrutinised by lawyers, so lets say they get that done and approved during the first couple of weeks of

3/ December before ratification at the EP before Christmas.

So, effectively we have 9 short months to fulfil the Brexiteers promise of a full trade deal by Brexit day on 31/12/2020.

4/ We need to take stock of where the discussions are in June and the Commission will report back to the European Parliament/Council end of June.

5/ So what will they talk about? Well the CETA agreement between Canada and the EU is 1,634 pages long (I'm sure that the lawyers can check that text between 1st and 15th December?????). It is 30 chapters long as follows:

6/ Chapter 1 sets out the scope of the overall agreement and has 10 different articles. We can get that done by end of this month though? Right?

7/ Chapter 2 has 13 sections and This chapter describes how CETA will lower or remove duties, taxes or other import fees for goods between the EU and Canada. CETA will remove most of these when it enters into force, and a few others more

8/ gradually. Both the EU and Canada commit to treating the goods they import from each other no less favourably than goods made domestically.

9/ The chapter also outlines certain restrictions and controls that CETA will put or keep in place, such as to protect both sides' rights as WTO members or ensure the origin of the goods they import.

10/ Chapter 3 has 7 separate articles. In this chapter the EU and Canada reconfirm their rights and commitments under World trade Organization rules. These rules mean that each World trade Organization member can counteract

11/ the negative effects of unfair trade practices on their domestic industry, for example if another member 'dumps' goods on its market at below the cost of production, or subsidises production of those goods.

12/ The chapter also includes:

rules on transparency including:
investigations launched into possible cases of unfair trade practices,
measures taken to counter them,
mechanisms for consultation and information sharing to avoid these from occurring.

13/ Chapter 4, seven articles. In this chapter, the EU and Canada commit to working more closely together on technical regulations for testing and certifying products. The aim is to enable regulators to:
exchange experiences and information

14/ identify areas where they could cooperate more closely
This cooperation is voluntary. It can't in any way force the EU or Canada to lower their standards.

15/ Chapter 5, 14 articles This chapter covers food safety and animal and plant health. Since 1998, the EU and Canada have had a Veterinary Agreement in place. This applies to animals and any products made from them. Under CETA, the

16/ provisions of the SPS chapter replace the Veterinary Agreement, but the work that took place under the agreement continues.

17/ This chapter also ensures that measures by either side to ensure food safety and animal and plant health do not create unjustified barriers to trade, but rather facilitate trade.

18/ Chapter 6, 14 articles. This chapter aims to streamline customs procedures and make them more efficient. It ensures:
transparency – e.g. making customs requirements public, and providing information online

19/ streamlined, risk-based procedures – e.g. risk management and pre-arrival processing rather than requiring each shipment offered for entry to be examined,certainty and predictability e.g. a transparent,

20/ efficient appeals process, reliable advance rulings on tariff classifications.

21/ Chapter 7, 9 articles This chapter increases transparency around government subsidies to companies. Both the EU and Canada have to notify each other if they subsidise the production of goods.

22/ And they have to provide further information on any subsidies they give to companies providing services, if the other side asks for such information.
In addition, the chapter sets up a mechanism to enable the EU and Canada to consult each other on subsidies

23/ that may negatively affect trade between them, and to find solutions if a subsidy is found to do so. The EU and Canada also agree not to subsidise exports of agricultural products to each other's markets.

24/ Chapter 8, 45 Articles. This chapter sets out measures to open up investment between the EU and Canada, and protect investors and ensure that governments treat them fairly.
The chapter:
removes barriers to foreign investment

25/ such as foreign equity caps or performance requirements
allows EU investors to transfer their capital in Canada back to the EU, and vice versa
puts in place transparent, stable and predictable rules governing investment

26/ guarantees that the government will treat foreign investors fairly
sets up a new Investment Court System, or ICS, to enable investors to resolve investment disputes with governments quickly and fairly.

27/ The chapter also confirms the right to regulate at all levels of government.

Chapter 9, only 9 Articles here but important nonetheless

28/ This chapter makes it easier for EU individuals and companies to provide services to Canadian customers, and vice versa. It covers:
services such as legal services, accountancy, transport & telecom services, supplied from the EU into Canada, and vice versa

29/ services such as tourism, where a Canadian consumer has to move physically from Canada to the EU to consume that service, and vice versa.
The EU and Canada commit to ensuring fair, equal access to each other's services markets.

30/ . In certain service industries the EU and Canada have made exceptions because, for example, the sectors in question - such as audio-visual services, certain aviation services - are sensitive. In addition,

31/ this chapter fully upholds governments' ability to regulate and supply services in the public interest.

32/ Chapter 10, 10 Articles in this chapter that provides legal certainty for trained workers, who temporarily enter the EU or Canada to do business. It states in a transparent, predictable way:

33/ the types of professional covered, and the sectors in which they can operate
the maximum length of their stay
that EU professionals will enjoy equal treatment in Canada and vice versa.

34/ So above you have about ONE THIRD of all the things that were negotiated between the EU and Canada.... there is plenty more, but it is worth highlighting why the UK-EU talks will be more difficult.....

35/ Usually, as was the case with CETA, the two parties begin with differing levels of regulation, different standards, and do not begin with a level playing field. The parties began from different positions and talked about a meeting point that was mutually acceptable to both.

36/ The UK already has this equivalence and instead of agreeing a mutually acceptable set of regulations and standards (that we already enjoy) BoJo has promised that the UK will DIVERGE AWAY from the levels already agreed.

37/ Without knowing to what low level the UK will go in the future the Westminster team will NOT be able to explain to the EU how far we will drop our standards in other trade talks where the other

38/ partner is far larger and more powerful than the UK such as Japan or the USA. This means that while the EU ask the UK for specifics around standards and regulations the UK team wont be able to provide it without

39/ checking first with the likes of Donald Trump to find out what their red lines are going to be. Oh what fun!

40/ There are TWO major issues facing Boris in these trade talks; Firstly there is insufficient time, we will need a minimum of 5 years in my opinion and we have just ten months, and secondly, Boris has made a promise

41/ of a full FTA with the EU by the end of 2020 or we have a hard cliff edge Brexit again and all the associated uncertainty.

42/ Oh, did I say just TWO major issues?

The 3 fundamental issues of citizens rights, financial settlement of our obligations and ensuring there is no border on the island of Ireland still havent

43/ gone away and they will be first up in the talks beginning in just a couple of weeks time.

Still think this is going to be the easiest trade deal in history?

I, for one, do not!