Kelly Brown (fungus beggar) Profile picture
Mar 1, 2020 4 tweets 3 min read Read on X
/ - picks/shovels for IVF industry

CEO put on a 5yr clinic in measured value creation / capital allocation

Business building historically funded by shares/cash, but EBIT PER SHARE GREW. ROIC stable.

Now net cash, acquisitions can be funded w/balance sheet

Flywheel ImageImageImageImage
Impressively, from '16 to '20:

Tangible capital grew 328% from $1.5m to $7.5m, while returns on tang cap maintained at +100% [good underlying business]

AND

Total capital grew 297% from $9m to $36m, while returns on tot cap maintained at 20-25% [good cap allocation] Image
In vitro fertilization holding up well Image
still holding up.

Acumen crosses 10.6m shares today (~7.5% of shares outstanding), and have traded ~14.6m shares since beginning of March. Avg dailly volume about 300-500k. Could be seeing interest from new incoming shareholder base. ImageImage

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Apr 2, 2023
RESILIENCE🧵

In 2019, I suffered a humiliating public and costly investment loss at the hands of cannabis "shitco" I got behind.

My peak-to-trough portfolio loss in just 15 months was -73%.

Prior to that, my 6.5yr CAGR was 33%.

I could have given up.

But I didn't...
My 2019 loss was the most challenging experience of not only my investing career but of my entire life.

I lost 73% of my capital in 15 months – capital I had compounded at a high rate for 7 years, in a prudent, disciplined manner, that brought many inward and outward emoluments.
I had two choices: give up, or keep going. I don't know how I did it, but chose the latter.

Luckily, thanks to my network of brilliant investing peers and experience, I had other assets in my portfolio, namely $XPEL and $CPH.to, that have brought my capital back from the depths.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 3, 2022
I would like to disabuse everyone, including the media, of the notion that drug/opioid toxicity deaths and COVID-19 explain all of the increase in total deaths in 🇨🇦. They do not.

A brief 🧵, with just the raw numbers, in an easily digestible format. Please share widely.
Note: for simplicity, the figures I present in the tweets below are for three provinces only, combined: Ontario, Alberta and BC. They have the country's largest drug epidemics with the highest absolute drug death counts:
Q1 Deaths (Jan to Mar)
Total ▪️ Opioid ▪️ C-19

2016: 41,737 ▪️ 554 ▪️ 0
2017: 45,109 ▪️ 797 ▪️ 0
2018: 46,693 ▪️ 904 ▪️ 0
2019: 44,918 ▪️ 917 ▪️ 0
2020: 46,169 ▪️ 910 ▪️ 77
2021: 49,343 ▪️ 1,638 ▪️ 4,228
2022: 53,664 ▪️ 1,684 ▪️ 3,886

(note the changes from '21 to '22)
Read 8 tweets
Aug 21, 2022
Unfortunately, Statistics Canada can no longer be trusted.

After at least 5 months of published estimates showing growing excess all-cause mortality in New Brunswick 🇨🇦, in their August update @StatCan_eng has revised NB deaths down to the baseline.

Colour me skeptical.
The excess deaths in New Brunswick 🇨🇦 first garnered the attention of national media in June 2022...
cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…
Read 5 tweets
Aug 16, 2022
IMPORTANT

This Alberta 🇨🇦 study vilifying unvaccinated people made the rounds yesterday.

But it does not address some serious flaws in the way vax/unvax data is collected. I will ask @drseanbagshaw to address them here in this short 🧵. Please read and share. cc:@AlexBerenson
Two Major Flaws:

#1. Does not indicate whether unvaccinated patients include those patients that received their 1st dose <13 days prior to admission.

We know from Alberta statistics (no longer available) that a striking # of admits (and deaths) occur shortly after 1st dose.👇🏼
We know this from great work done by @AlexBerenson, who noticed the above data was scrubbed from the Alberta Covid site in Jan 2022. The images in the above tweet are from Alex's substack article (below), which I encourage @drseanbagshaw to read carefully. alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-governme…
Read 7 tweets
Jul 15, 2022
🚨THIS IS MASSIVE NEWS🚨

In response to Dr. Moore's sensible risk/reward vaccine guidance, @KateHanneman of the Cardiology community is PUSHING BACK, and downplaying the risk of Myocarditis!

They are WRONG, they have been WRONG, and now they know they are wrong!
The above article from @RichardCityNews needs to be retracted! He is citing 204 cases of Myocarditis of the 775 total cases of Myo or Pericarditis heart damage, IGNORING ALL 572 other cases of heart damage deemed peri or myo/peri, therefore citing a false 1 in 61,000 (all ages)! Image
@RichardCityNews this is terrible journalism! Correct it at once!
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4, 2022
Ontario Mortality Update
(@StatsCanada Estimates)

*Record High Deaths in Q1/2022*

33,183 total deaths (all ages)
+17% vs. '17-'19 Q1 average
+10% vs. Q1/'21

WHY IS ONTARIO EXPERIENCING RECORD HIGH MORTALITY IN 2022 AMID WEAKER VARIANTS & 50+ AGES 95% FULLY-VAXED & 81% BOOSTED?
Note: the "Non C-19 Excess" in the above chart refers simply to the total number of deaths above the 2017-2019 average that are not explained by Covid-19 death counts.
Also Note: Opioid deaths are only a small portion of the "Non C-19 Excess". For example, in Q4/21 and Q1/22 there were 2,256 and 2,177 "Non C-19 Excess" deaths, respectively, while Opioid deaths averaged ~705 per in 2021 (360 per quarter in '17-'19).
Read 5 tweets

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