Back on January 21st, the first patient in the United States was announced to have the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection. That person was diagnosed and treated in Washington State. The patient was in the hospital for two weeks and has subsequently recovered. #coronavirus
When researchers compared the genome of that first coronavirus infection to a more recently diagnosed (Feb 28) coronavirus patient,who also lives in the same county but is not known to have had contact with the first patient, they found the two genomes were similar.
#coronavirus
#coronavirus
This means the more recent coronavirus could be a descendant of the first coronavirus infection. Think of it like possibly being the great great grandchild of the original virus. nextstrain.org/ncov?f_divisio… #coronavirus
While it is possible that the cases are unrelated and were separately introduced into the country, some experts think it is more likely that the original patient’s coronavirus could have been circulating in Washington State since January — for six weeks. #coronavirus
Dr. Mike Famulare, a scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling, told @nytimes that means up to 1500 people may have been infected with the coronavirus — the range being 150-1500 ppl. #coronavirus
Yes, I know that sounds scary. And, it makes the case that the US should’ve been testing for this much more broadly for the last several weeks. Remember: in South Korea they have performed ~65,000 tests for coronavirus, and the US has performed closer to 500 tests. #coronavirus
But... it could also mean that many of these (up to) 1500 people didn’t get that sick and/or show up at the hospital or clinic. And if they did show up at the hospital, they were most likely thought to have the common cold or the flu. #coronavirus
This is a phylogenetic analysis and makes the case that coronavirus has probably been spreading for sometime in Washington State and probably other parts of the country. #coronavirus
Therefore, the increased testing being made available this week could result in a dramatic increase in coronavirus cases diagnosed in the US. When you see the increased numbers reported, hopefully it will now make sense and not be that surprising or alarming. #coronavirus
