A few points...
So Joe Biden does better in a two-person race.
Mike Bloomberg’s spending didn’t do much to dent what Dem primary voters thought of him as a Republican mayor, or what they thought of him in the debates, or both.
This cycle shows how much individual events can shape a whole race - how Biden did in one state; DNC changing rules bringing Bloomberg into debate; Rivals deciding to immediately endorse.
There are no “front runners” in theory, only candidates with delegates.
The “conventional wisdom” has now *underestimated* both candidates who have actually done best with delegates — first Sanders as he rose, then Biden before the race evolved.
The timing of tonight’s news is also arbitrary — if Biden is up early, but ends behind in delegates because CA and TX numbers come in later (TBD).
