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alexandre afonso Profile picture
@alexandreafonso
Mar 8, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Ratio of deaths/confirmed cases #Coronavid19 jumps to 4.96% in Italy. Sounds scary, but important to remember that numerator (deaths) much easier to detect than denominator (people infected, especially light cases). Underdetection --> inflated death rate. corriere.it/salute/malatti… Image
google.com/amp/s/www.vox.… Image
NB: the current reported global CFR is 3.4%, which is *34x* more deadly than the seasonal flu.

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More from @alexandreafonso

alexandre afonso Profile picture
Sep 20, 2022
I am writing a book on immigration policy and the welfare state for @OUPPolitics. Here's a thread on how my own existence is due to immigration policy and the welfare state.
Up to the 1960s, Switzerland had satisfied a great deal of its labour needs with immigrant workers from Italy, so that it had become quite dependent on Italian workers. In 1960, 20% of the whole workforce were migrant workers, and two thirds of these were Italian.
But permit conditions were drastic, with limits on family reunification, exclusion from welfare schemes. Given that wages and living conditions in Italy were improving rapidly, Italy used this dependency as leverage.
Read 17 tweets
alexandre afonso Profile picture
May 26, 2022
A thread of things accused of being the cause of massacres of kids in schools: 1. Doors
2. Kids being in schools Image
3. US weapons going to Ukraine instead of American schools. Image
Read 13 tweets
alexandre afonso Profile picture
Apr 11, 2022
A couple of scatterplots on social class and yesterday's vote in France.
This is the relationship between the Le Pen % and the % of manual workers in French departments (R2: .45).
And this is the relationship between the Macron vote and the percentage of "cadres" (managers & intellectual professions).
Read 10 tweets
alexandre afonso Profile picture
Apr 10, 2022
Based on the projection and earlier polls asking about vote transfers, this is how voter flows in the second round of the French presidential election could look like. If this holds Macron should still win with 54%.
Source projection: ipsos.com/fr-fr/presiden…
Source expected vote transfers: ipsos.com/sites/default/…
This ignores the small candidates for whom I don't have declared preferences in the second round. It also ignores the "endorsements" for the runoff being made just now. Mélenchon just called not to give a single vote to Le Pen, even if he didn't name Macron explicitly.
Read 7 tweets
alexandre afonso Profile picture
Mar 28, 2022
How Putinophile are voters of radical-right parties in Western Europe? A thread alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/1-radical-ri…
We know that a number of radical right (RR) parties in Western Europe have developed substantial (ideological; financial) links with the Russian government over the years. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
But what about their voters? The Pew Research Center periodically asks respondents in 16 countries about their views on a number of global issues, and notably their trust in global leaders, including Putin. The last available wave is from 2021. pewresearch.org/global/2021/09…
Read 10 tweets
alexandre afonso Profile picture
Mar 27, 2022
I guess it had to happen: I started a substack where I'm going to post some short pieces. You can subscribe here: alexandreafonso.substack.com
The first post is about radical right voters in Western Europe and Vladimir Putin. We know that Le Pen, Salvini and the AfD are very pro-Putin. Was it the case of their voters? alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/1-radical-ri…
I use data from the Pew Global Attitudes Survey collected in 9 countries in 2021 (n=9k). The short answer is that radical right voters were on average 3x more likely than other voters to have confidence in Vladimir Putin to "do the right thing in world affairs".
Read 5 tweets

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