Thread by @suru27

#vip sum of last 4 years of cash flow from operations 200 cr, means avg 50 cr. Even if consider latest year normalized value 60-70 cr , one is paying 70-80x cash profit DESPITE so much correction. Hyped story on name of brand, consumer durable , travel theme ? How u justify ?

The same no for 2008-11 was 150 cr. So, from 2008-11 to 2016-19, 8 year increment is from 150 cr to 200 cr (m taking 4 years to normalise working capital effect spreads), 8 years, 33% total absolute growth. That's not even 4% cagr growth in cash profit . Missing something ?

So , ultimately , we r paying min 70x cash profit for a less than 4% cagr cash profit growth story. Why ??

Now some fun facts on shareholding : Jan16 to sept 18, FII went from 0.4 to 12%, price from 96 to 600. After that FII, started selling off. Retail n MF have been buying lapping up 6%+,price is down from 600 to below 400. Business wise not much changed😁

The price in 2012 was 200 n in 2016 went down below 100. No one recognized quality then. May be it was the ITC was 2012-16 😁 before quality emerged once FIIs said - Tathastu . #qualitynarratives