kumar saurabh Profile picture
Founder, Scientific Investing Stock Market, Machine Learning, Storytelling and Poetry. Views are personal.
deepak manek Profile picture Be Aware Profile picture njain Profile picture Sacheendra Shetty Profile picture Rahul saunik Profile picture 12 added to My Authors
Jun 17 26 tweets 13 min read
If ever leave Twitter, will be proud of 2 things
1. Contribution during covid in apr'21
2. Continuous rant on overvaluation amplified from Oct'21
Here is master thread on each of those rants. Rarely asked but show some love if it made any +ve difference to your investing. journey Image
Jun 17 5 tweets 3 min read
A thread of strength in the market.

An analysis which I did during Covid crash with @MashraniVivek on which sectors and stocks were strong, and we did pick pharma, chemical early cycle. Though we do not know where market is heading, doing such exercise always helps to find strength when market bottoms. Of course, it requires much more reading and conviction building and hence should be taken only as a starting point. Here is how this list has been generated
1. Pick top 500 companies
2. Find list of companies which have fallen < 10% in last 3 months
Jan 10 12 tweets 4 min read
🧵A thread of how a typical investing journey looks like by studying journey of Infosys from 2996-2022 in numbers.
✍️Infosys has generated a CAGR of 36.57%
✍️Infosys has given cumulative return of 333,652%

Quite impressive, is not it? However, the journey was not so smooth ✍️In last 25+ years while delivering this return, Infosys went through one 80%+ drawdown, two 50%+ drawdowns and five 30%+ drawdowns in terms of price fall
✍️ Time periods could be more frustrating the % fall at times. This is where 2020 Covid crash was though severe
Dec 12, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
🧵A thread on how company's books are cooked and 📒why reading annual report is important

This is a company where this is how its assets looked like. Notice 25% of assets are intangibles and there is an asset called - Business Commercial Rights Now this is how company defined Business Commercial Rights - "The Company has entered into an exclusive facilitation service agreement with various educational trusts in accordance
with which the Company has exclusive rights for a period of 30 years to provide various
Dec 2, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Once you have read below thread and not yet bored, come and read this

3. If really doing fundamental investing, have your own conviction. Going through someone else research work is not conviction. Actual individual research starts after that 4. If technical guy, build your own system or process than seeking buy sell tips on social media. charts change views change, results change views change, its better to learn 1 time than asking 1000 times

5. Use social media to gather ideas but use your own filters
Dec 2, 2021 26 tweets 9 min read
A thread🧵 on so called market traps of transitionary performing stocks which leads to retail getting stuck. Doing as lot of tweets floating on such stocks.

Will take example of one of such stock with my own twitter history though I never presented in public #Neulandlabs 1. If you think, every performing stock will become an Asian paints, you are in for disaster. 99% of businesses are cyclic, only quantum differs. So, either do not overpay or if overpaying a bit and have confidence in the business, then,
Nov 30, 2021 25 tweets 11 min read
🧵 A thread on #StarHealth #starhealthipo
📽️Will post YouTube video tomorrow

You may skip initial tweets but do read last 7-8 tweets because that is where the key risks are and some of them are least discussed

Please like and retweet for better reach🙏 The good side: Why health insurance sector?
High Growth Industry
Huge Market Size Opportunity
Yet to catch up with worldwide average
Shift from public to private
Aug 23, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Now take its peer. Did almost the same stuff. cashflows 4x but could maintain margins, show some growth. Screwed on 5 year basis but decent return on 10 year basis at 19% CAGR. The whole difference was created by valuation. 2010 one did not pay high but 2015 with all great things one paid high and paid the price
Aug 23, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
A business which has multiplied its cash flows 4.5x in last 10 years has generated 1% CAGR in last 10 years.

Think multiple times while paying high n have exit plan ready when things do not work out.

Guess the stock. All data taken from screener 10 Years back the business had very good growth, high margins.
Apr 13, 2021 11 tweets 2 min read
Time for a small thread 🧵on 10 common secrets of good fundamental analyst and technical analyst (personal view, no ranking)-

1. Makes it a Habit 📡

Fundamental Analyst: To read annual reports and conference call transcripts daily

Technical Analyst: To study few charts daily 2. Knows what to Ignore🙈

Fundamental Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which companies to focus

Technical Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which charts to focus
Oct 7, 2020 7 tweets 7 min read
#ARNotes #hindustanfood. 15 hr day in office but reading analysing AR brings all energy back :). This one was long due. Had mentioned on reading an interesting AR. Cash flows, margins n valuation need serious monitoring, not easy to decipher at this stage of journey #AR28
Sep 28, 2020 4 tweets 4 min read
Sep 28, 2020 9 tweets 8 min read
#ARNotes #AR2020 #Vinati one of favourites
Sep 19, 2020 8 tweets 6 min read
#AR2020 #ARNotes #Apollosindoori One of microcars I track. Illiquid counter. In healthcare facility mgmt , catering hospitality mgmt. Interesting combo of sectors ImageImageImageImage ImageImageImageImage
Sep 19, 2020 7 tweets 7 min read
#AR2020 Rarely comes AR which confuses if its well written to entice you or something special. A potential Long-Term story (rare for me) barring few concerns. Must read to know industry #sequentScientific. Thanks to @unseenvalue n @punitbansal14 for bringing this story to us🙏 ImageImageImageImage ImageImageImageImage
Sep 19, 2020 7 tweets 6 min read
#AR2020 Continuing with ARs, next is #FDC Many of you sent DM for my views. Have summarised my view in last sheet. Will do now onwards. However, it’s just a view, not a reco by any means. ImageImageImageImage ImageImageImageImage
Sep 18, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Had started this year annual report notes sharing with lot of pharma companies n someone asked why. In hindsight, you know :). In case one missed, my notes for #laurus #neuland #alembic #ajanta #syngene all in one place

wp.me/p4x5b8-72 factsbeyondnumbers.wordpress.com/2020/06/22/my-…
Sep 9, 2020 10 tweets 9 min read
#AR2020 #Polymed Very good read if one wants to understand changing landscape of domestic medical decides industry. This is one of better sector internationally with wealth generation history. Options limited in India with poor history like optocircuits ImageImageImageImage ImageImageImageImage
Sep 9, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
#shorttermalgo Trying my hands on building a short term market movement algo ML drive. Exploratory data analysis is where 70% of time is spent to find patterns and hence, search for patterns. Will share whatever imp I find. One interesting chart. Image This is for count of companies above 20 D EMA for large,mid and small cap. Notice the top rectangle which is small cap. Whenever count of companies > 20 DEMA crosses 250, its time to be cautious because mostly it is followed by small correction. Data is from March 19 till today
Aug 31, 2020 7 tweets 4 min read
I track universe of these ~900 companies (by market cap). Below are some charts to give a sense of how things of moved in last few year and last few weeks. Data is from 1st Jan 2018 to 31st Aug 2020 #chart1 : % of stocks closed above 50 DEMA n 200 DEMA. Insight: After Jan 1, 2018, last week was 2nd occasion when >70% of stocks have hit closing price > 200 DEMA
Blue bar: Close>50 DEMA, Red: Close>200 DEMA (DEMA: Day Exponential Moving Average)
Aug 28, 2020 8 tweets 7 min read
Weekend is back n so ARs :) #AR2020 #kovai. Does anyone know if for selected pages,a mini PDF can be created in iPad, any app to do so ? ImageImageImageImage ImageImageImageImage