kumar saurabh Profile picture
Founder - Scientific Investing | SEBI Registered RA | Stock Market | Data Science | Guest Faculty | Building Investing & Trading Tools | Ex- EY, HP, ICRA
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Nov 13 10 tweets 3 min read
Conference calls r best way to understand business. 💡10 Key #ConcallInsights #Intellectdesign #Q2FY24

💡What excites: A software business with high growth prospects of 15-20% topline growth and higher PAT growth Image 💡 Some unique aspects of software business. The development to sales cycle of software business explained (we discussed this at length during our IT supersession). Image
Jul 14 13 tweets 4 min read
🔟 Key Insights from #AR2023 Annual Report #Menon Bearings

In case you never heard about this company, here is our Youtube video explaining the business
1⃣ FY23 sales and PAT grew at 10% and 30% respectively Image
Jul 11 13 tweets 4 min read
🔟 Key Insights from #AR2023 Annual Report #EPL

1⃣ Every 3rd tube produced in the oral category globally is an EPL tube.
2⃣EPL Ltd is the world’s largest specialty packaging company manufacturing laminated tubes, s in Beauty & Cosmetics, Food, Oral Care, Pharma & Healthcare and Home Care with 8 billion tubes production capacity
Jun 9 12 tweets 4 min read
#IEX A chronological history of all tweets on IEX for learning purposes and current stand in the end
1st caution (it is always probabilistic, sometimes works, sometimes does not) Image 2nd caution Image
Jun 8 10 tweets 4 min read
#NIIT All about NIIT Demerger. So, NIIT demerger happened and the B2C business now trades at Rs 98. The HIGHLY profitable B2B business is yet to be listed but here is brief analysis.
NIIT has 2 businesses:
B2C: NIIT Limited: Retail learning
B2B: Corporate Learning The B2C business is more volatile and did just a breakeven this year where as the corporate learning business is high growth high margin business. Here is P&L for B2B business. So, in B2B, we are getting a 20% growth business at 23% EBITDA margin doing ~200 Cr of PAT Image
Apr 22 9 tweets 4 min read
#CNXIT History of IT Sector in India: A data-based perspective

In last 1.5 years, we witnessed a heavy price correction in IT sector. This is evident from CNXIT index movement which is 32% down in last 1.5 years (we kept cautioning repeatedly then) Image Now, sector is also facing headwinds. Typically, this is how market behaves. Market is always ahead of reality. It tops when valuations highlight major froth, smart money slowly exits n new entrants think they know it all, are scapegoats. Companies r lowering their guidance. ImageImage
Apr 21 8 tweets 3 min read
#KMC My 10 min work. Thanks for initiating idea @Coolfundoo as this was not the stock I was mentioning.

Whenever I get new idea, i pass it to some of my in built tools and back of envelope calculation to check if its worth deep diving as we cant go in detail on evert stock Coming to KMC, it has gone through major asset expansion in last 2 years and at visible potential, it should have Rs 100 Cr of net fixed asset Image
Apr 21 10 tweets 2 min read
🧵A thread on Scientific Investing YouTube credibility report of last 1 year (important as fin-influencers are termed as stock peddlers on SM).
Link: youtube.com/ScientificInve…

16 stocks n sectors discussed with positive bias since 2022 had a mean return on 24% till today 💡 31% of stocks/sectors discussed have > 50% return till today with mean 77% return

💡 38% of stocks/sectors discussed have >0% return with mean 8% return

💡31% of stocks/sectors discussed < 0% return with mean -8% return
Mar 3 34 tweets 7 min read
We all love @dspmf Netra and Tathya reports and here is latest one: dspim.co/NetMar23

Want to understand these reports in detail and extract best out of them, follow this🧵

At Scientific Investing, we hosted Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor from DSP to discuss these reports and much more including macro, markets, budget, data, inflation, recession, interest rate, demand etc. Here is discussion summary:

💡Reasons Behind Netra and Tathya

👉Track 50 markets daily to monitor outliers & further studying macroeconomic data

👉 Macroeconomics is
Feb 1 5 tweets 2 min read
#SouthIndianBank Bank101: How security receipts and NPA pool selling transactions with ARCs work. Gold learning for me on the detailing and thanks to Tushar Sarda for asking 1/n

#Q3FY23 #ConcallInsights with Scientific Investing. Give us a shoutout if our work helps🙏 More on same
Jan 31 5 tweets 2 min read
#SouthIndianBank An interesting personal trivia on South Indian Bank

As added, this at ~Rs 8.4 and get credit from few friends, sharing this trivia. While working as financial consultant in 2013, one of colleague joined from ICICI & his ex-boss was current SIB CEO. 1/n We did discuss about his experience under previous boss etc. Then, I moved on to another company. In this company, my reporting boss was the one who hired/managed the same gentleman in his previous company. So, I knew someone who reported and someone who managed in terms 2/n
Jan 18 13 tweets 5 min read
IT CEOs vs Fresher's Salary: Myth vs Reality

If you do not look at data properly, it can hide right things and reveal wrong things. However, looking at data "properly" needs quite some effort which many do not want to do and social media has only worsened this trend of providing the fastest information (let me bluntly say cut, copy, paste). The current data shared is a prime example of the same. So, let us look at this data. Few observations:
1. Absolute numbers may hide lot of things and there was no focus on metric like CAGR because it would
Jan 8 33 tweets 8 min read
A thread to drive discussions on live case studies for space session "Avoiding the pitfalls of FOMO: Timely caution for retail investors" organized by @AI_Feb21 on 8th Jan'23

Please check and if helpful, like & retweet

Index Case Studies
Jan 6 4 tweets 2 min read
Last 32 years of NIFTY correction
A 🧵good to go through & learn. Tell your learnings?

Peak | Correction Duration | Drawdown
Sep 90 | 92 Days | -36%
Apr 92 | 395 Days | -53%
Sep 94 | 487 Days | -40%
Aug 97 | 458 Days | -37% Feb 2000 | 1185 Days | -49%
Feb 2004 | 123 Days | -35%
Jan 2008 | 303 Days | -64%
Nov 2010 | 395 Days | -28%
Jan 2013 | 212 Days | -16%
Dec 8, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read
#HCG 🧵to provide key technical analysis insight & learning through one of popular stock HCG (valid for long term investors & traders)

Please note there are no GOD rules in technical analysis, but discipline makes a rule GOD for us when transactions go for a toss

Keep reading.. Let us focus on 2 things:
1. Why as an investor I start any chart reading with monthly chart for longer term direction

2. Why relative performance matters
Oct 27, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
AC was megatrend 5-8 years back with 10% penetration story n high double digit market growth rate like we had platform companies last year, right? Lesson remains same - Never overpay to stories. Even if, do not overexpose mistakes (we all do, quantum is key) #respectvaluation johnson hitachi
Oct 27, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
I see few popular handles highlighting shareholding data that FII increasing, retail decreasing kind of tweets with screenshot from @screener_in Request everyone not to blindly go with such tweets as they fail to do even basic detailing check. There are many instances where it is just shifting of an institutional name from one category to another than anything meaningful. Attached one screenshot but there are many such examples. @faltoo bhai thanks for giving us our lifeline of investinh in the form of @screener_in . Kindly check if it's possible
Jun 17, 2022 26 tweets 13 min read
If ever leave Twitter, will be proud of 2 things
1. Contribution during covid in apr'21
2. Continuous rant on overvaluation amplified from Oct'21
Here is master thread on each of those rants. Rarely asked but show some love if it made any +ve difference to your investing. journey Image
Jun 17, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
A thread of strength in the market.

An analysis which I did during Covid crash with @MashraniVivek on which sectors and stocks were strong, and we did pick pharma, chemical early cycle. Though we do not know where market is heading, doing such exercise always helps to find strength when market bottoms. Of course, it requires much more reading and conviction building and hence should be taken only as a starting point. Here is how this list has been generated
1. Pick top 500 companies
2. Find list of companies which have fallen < 10% in last 3 months
Jan 10, 2022 12 tweets 4 min read
🧵A thread of how a typical investing journey looks like by studying journey of Infosys from 2996-2022 in numbers.
✍️Infosys has generated a CAGR of 36.57%
✍️Infosys has given cumulative return of 333,652%

Quite impressive, is not it? However, the journey was not so smooth ✍️In last 25+ years while delivering this return, Infosys went through one 80%+ drawdown, two 50%+ drawdowns and five 30%+ drawdowns in terms of price fall
✍️ Time periods could be more frustrating the % fall at times. This is where 2020 Covid crash was though severe
Dec 12, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
🧵A thread on how company's books are cooked and 📒why reading annual report is important

This is a company where this is how its assets looked like. Notice 25% of assets are intangibles and there is an asset called - Business Commercial Rights Now this is how company defined Business Commercial Rights - "The Company has entered into an exclusive facilitation service agreement with various educational trusts in accordance
with which the Company has exclusive rights for a period of 30 years to provide various