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Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
@Weather_West
Mar 12, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
For those looking for some good news this week, I do have some from a California weather perspective: a sudden burst of potentially quite heavy Sierra Nevada snowfall (along with widespread rain elsewhere) is likely this weekend into early next week. (1/3) #CAwx #CAwater ImageImage
Over the next 5-7 days, a pretty broad swath of 2-3 foot snowfall is possible across Sierra Nevada. This will be a cold system, so accumulating snowfall possible down below 2,500 ft. Rainfall accumulations elsewhere will be fairly widespread and mostly moderate. (2/3) #CAwx ImageImage
Clearly, this is very good news! It is, however, still important to keep these numbers in perspective. Snowpack currently at only 38% of avg., & is "missing" ~24 *inches* of liquid SWE. Even after upcoming big snowfall, we'll still be massively behind. #CAwx #CAwater (3/3) Image

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More from @Weather_West

Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Apr 7
For folks in Colorado wondering what the heck is going on with #Xcel's large-scale pre-emptive power line de-energization to avoid wildfire ignitions during high wind events, I wanted to share a some thoughts as a scientist who studies climate/weather/wildfire. #COwx [1/n]
The first utility-scale "Public Safety Power Shut-offs" (#PSPS) in response to fire risk of which I'm aware began in 2010s in California in response to catastrophic wildfire events in urban interface sparked by power infrastructure during extreme fire weather/wind events. [2/n]
Such fires occur when energized lines fall to ground or trees fall onto live wires (igniting vegetation). They tend to be preferentially dangerous precisely because they occur under "worst case" conditions, when weather favors rapid spread & fire suppression is ineffective. [3/n]
Read 23 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Feb 5
I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate.

1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases. #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Image
2) Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!). #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Image
3) Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a "super Clausius-Clapeyron" rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California! #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Image
Read 10 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Dec 5, 2023
Scientific institutions must create--and sustain--new kinds of roles so that researchers can provide the deep public engagement necessary to respond effectively to the escalating impacts of #climate change. The status quo isn't working. [Thread: 1/n] nature.com/articles/d4158…
My own role as a climate scientist-communicator is highly unusual in the academic world: I'm a practicing scientist who spends a large fraction (now over half) of my time engaging the public, and the rest of my time actually conducting research and writing papers. [2]
That engagement takes many forms. This year, I've given over 200 news interviews & worked with outlets behind the scenes to develop their coverage. I also work with state/federal agencies, brief members of state/national legislatures, and more. [3]
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Nov 7, 2023
If you've been wondering why I've been somewhat less visible here, that's partly because of the "shifting winds" of social media. But also, I've been spending much effort scrambling to find some way to support my climate scientist-communicator role moving forward.
Thus far, I have not yet been successful in these efforts--& if nothing changes, the time left in my current role may unfortunately be limited. A great number of individuals & organizations have voiced support--and I'm hugely grateful for that!--but ultimately a large gap looms.
I'm still optimistic that something will arise in the coming months! But operating in this kind of highly public-facing climate science role unfortunately seems to fall between the cracks of existing institutions and funders. And ultimately, the status quo is not sustainable.
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Sep 20, 2023
Some additional thoughts regarding the still strengthening #ElNiño and its implications for western U.S. hydroclimate during winter 2023-24. (Brief thread!) #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx #HIwx #CAwater #CAfire Global map of sea surface temperature anomalies. Multiple areas with +3-5C anomalies are present in addition to the warm anomalies associated with El Nino in the eastern tropical Pacific.
International dynamical models ensemble is now unanimous in predicting strong to very strong #ElNiño event that will peak sometime this winter. This is a remarkably strong signal, so I'm reasonably confident that the oceanic signature of a strong EN will actually occur. Time series chart showing Nino3.4 region SST anomalies over the next several months from various coupled ocean-atmosphere models. All depicted models show a strong or very strong EN event, denoted by N3.4 values of +1.5 or +2 C, respectively.
Additionally, there's good consensus that this #ElNiño event will be centered in the eastern Pacific basin, versus the central Pacific (i.e., this is not "#ElNiño Modoki"). High confidence in strong, east-based event signals increased likelihood of WUS hydroclimate impacts.
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Daniel Swain Profile picture
Aug 10, 2023
Confirmed human toll from wildland-urban interface #MauiFires is terrible (already second deadliest wildfire in modern American history), but grim reports from residents on the ground suggest actual toll is even greater & that there is still minimal outside assistance. #MauiFire
As previously discussed: #Lahaina was town that was unfortunately quite vulnerable to a wind-driven fire from precisely the direction in which this one originated (due to surrounding extensive grasslands and brush, prevalence of wood structures, & relatively isolated location).
I do not know if the town/county had a formal evacuation plan, but much as during the similarly catastrophic Camp Fire in Paradise, CA the flames in this case moved so fast that such plans probably could not have been implemented in time anyway.
Read 15 tweets

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