THREAD: There is an emergent left programme on #COVID_19uk - the obvious elements are: 1/ Universal Sick Pay and/or immediate helicopter payments to sustain demand and facilitate taking sick leave...
2/ Workers rights to safe working conditions, including for NHS/Social Care staff; 3/ Massive fiscal stimulus with redistribution at its core...
4/ Massive state-directed emergency investment in testing, intensive care beds and social care; and state-directed/globally co-ordinated vaccine research programme aimed at massive generic roll-out...
5/ Democratic scrutiny over government/medical technocrat decisions on travel restrictions, event bans, testing etc: act early, act from below, act on the basis of evidence not Boris Johnson's "weirdos and misfits"
6/ End the nudge strategy: produce clear public information or we, civil society, via unions, devolved administrations and social movements will produce it from below...
7/ My own addition: when this is over, every Health Secretary and Chancellor since 2010 should face a public inquiry with special powers to prosecute for negligence. We're facing this with a depleted health service because politicians made choices...
8/ Once we mitigate the virus, and the economic meltdown, there will be a legitimate case to reshape our economy so that never again do we face exogenous shocks with depleted and impoverished public services... oh, and...
9/ "Herd immunity" may, or may not, be the best strategy but the social quid pro quo is that, economically, *everybody is in the herd* - no more private hospital wings - and sick pay for all.
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Britain we - and we alone - have a major diplomatic problem. Witkoff, Trump's envoy to RU, claimed on record that the four disputed provinces of Ukraine plus Crimea were "handed over by Kruschev" 1/ We are signatories of Budapest...
2/ Here's what the Budapest Memorandum says. Very clear: that we, the USA and Russia respect the *existing borders* of Ukraine. If Witkoff's position is shared by the State Dept we are, as of now, the sole remaining guarantor of UA sovereignty ...
3/ Trump is already breaching Budapest by using economic coercion against Ukraine ... but if USA has de facto walked away from Budapest then UK has to public reaffirm our adherence to it... it conforms to the Vienna criterion for a Treaty under international law ....
Make no mistake: Putin wants a puppet government in Kyiv and enforced neutrality/demilitarisation for Ukraine. 1/ Having failed to do achieve this through war, he now wants to achieve it through destabilisation... so the prevarication about the ceasefire offer is just for show🧵
2/ As @ZelenskyyUa points out: prevarication and delay is Putin's modus operandi. I'd go further - it's part of the Reflexive Control doctrine he operates against "state victims" which in this instance is the UK/EU...
@ZelenskyyUa 3/ The immediate truce offer was agreed with Trump, designed by the Brits and places Putin in a bind. He cannot insist on conditions - since his own economy is on the brink of destabilisation, and on the front line in Donbas (not Kursk) UA is v operationally effective...
Hegseth's Rammstein speech is a watershed moment for Europe. It means the USA is no longer a reliable ally, even if its democracy survives ... 1/ ... but Hegseth is right on one thing. We now have to spend a lot more on defence 🧵
2/ The FT reports HMG quibbling over 2.3% of GDP on defence and 2.6% - but that's now irrelevant... Trump is demanding 5% and may accept 3.5%... and it's clear what we need to spend it on...
3/ Without the USA as an ally primarily committed to European security, we need Europe to own strategic enablers. Satellites, heavy lift, AWACS, carriers and a reliably independent nuclear deterrent...
UK bond yield opens at 4.9% There is no “bond market crisis” - however, the high and rising yield on UK debt is the result of a long-term loss of confidence after the Truss fiasco and the poor fundamentals left by the Tories and Brexit 1/…🧵
2/ … what’s happening throws Reeves’ budget into a new light. She rightly did a “belt and braces” on fiscal credibility, raising NI to plug the massive gaps left by Hunt - but the bond markets still do not see a growth story. Why? …
3/ ...because key elements of Labour policy are at the design stage: industrial strategy, green energy, workforce... whilel growth is flatlining… and because we have a doom loop built into our policy architecture…
Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria 1/ ... hard to know the purpose without intel...
2/ ... at baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate"...
3/ That was surely an echo of His Master's Voice... while Western governments are refusing to attribute RU blatant attacks. Why? Could be an agreed strategem; could be fear of domestic destabilisation. Either way, Finland has put a stop to that...
What a day! Assad fled. Saydnaya liberated. Russian power in the Middle East evaporating. Yes there's a vacuum, yes there are competing forces but Syrians now have a chance to shape their own future free of Russian/Iranian imperialism ... and Britain's response matters 1/ 🧵
2/ There is every chance that Syria fragments into three or four chaotic states. That's a function of the "multipolar world" the Putin/Xi acolytes on the far left are so fond of. Multipolarity = chaos is the theme of 2023-4. And Trump saying "stay out of it" is delusional...
3/ The P5 powers could - if Russia/China want to show an ounce of responsibility - work with Turkey, Israel and Lebanon to stabilise the situation. Because if Syria as a state falls apart - its currency, treasury and central bank evaporate - that will be a case study in chaos...