I'm a China hawk but I am sick of Tory duplicity and 💩 Fleet Street commentary on "why don't we designate China a threat"? Neither Johnson, Sunak nor Truss did so, despite Truss threatening... and here's why: 1/ This is what a "threat" to National Security looks like... 2/ ... it's a nuclear capable Russian aircraft with a missile that can travel at Mach 10: three of them spent 12 minutes in NATO airspace last month... and the RAF regularly has to intercept these and other Russian threats...

I just used my fingerprint to log into my Apple computer; I used facial recognition to pay for an e-bike on my Apple phone; I ordered a repeat prescription on the NHS app that holds every detail of every illness I have ever been treated for on a central server...1/ 2/ ... I had to show my drivers' licence to get into a briefing from a civil servant; I used the e-gates at LCY to cross the border without having to speak to a human being... why would I object to "the state" issuing me with digital proof of ID?...

Labour's reshuffle was deftly completed and has rewarded competence and narrative skill. Task now is to start not just delivering but telling a story of who we are - I am proud of what Labour is achieving... here's one example... 1/ 2/ here's another... bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

What happened in D.C.? 🧵1/ We, outside the classified zone, won't know for a while - because the European leaders pulled of something surreal: they pulled Trump back from getting sucked in to Putin's mental framework ... but... 2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....

There are 3 historical reference points for Trump's Alaska disgrace ... Munich '38, Berlin '40, Moscow '41... which is closest? 1/🧵we've had no readout from an honest source...


2/ At Munich democracies signed up to dismembering Czechoslovakia, sidelining USSR with which it had a mutual defence pact ... so this wasn't Munich, yet...

Global investors are selling US stocks because they know Trump's tariffs will kill globalisation and trigger recession 1/... but why are they selling bonds at the same time? 🧵 2/ ....They're selling US bonds - which they would normally buy as a safe haven - because bonds have become gambling chips for hedge funds who are gambling on massive credit ... as @FT explains

Britain we - and we alone - have a major diplomatic problem. Witkoff, Trump's envoy to RU, claimed on record that the four disputed provinces of Ukraine plus Crimea were "handed over by Kruschev" 1/ We are signatories of Budapest... 2/ Here's what the Budapest Memorandum says. Very clear: that we, the USA and Russia respect the *existing borders* of Ukraine. If Witkoff's position is shared by the State Dept we are, as of now, the sole remaining guarantor of UA sovereignty ...

Make no mistake: Putin wants a puppet government in Kyiv and enforced neutrality/demilitarisation for Ukraine. 1/ Having failed to do achieve this through war, he now wants to achieve it through destabilisation... so the prevarication about the ceasefire offer is just for show🧵 2/ As @ZelenskyyUa points out: prevarication and delay is Putin's modus operandi. I'd go further - it's part of the Reflexive Control doctrine he operates against "state victims" which in this instance is the UK/EU...

Hegseth's Rammstein speech is a watershed moment for Europe. It means the USA is no longer a reliable ally, even if its democracy survives ... 1/ ... but Hegseth is right on one thing. We now have to spend a lot more on defence 🧵 2/ The FT reports HMG quibbling over 2.3% of GDP on defence and 2.6% - but that's now irrelevant... Trump is demanding 5% and may accept 3.5%... and it's clear what we need to spend it on...

UK bond yield opens at 4.9% There is no “bond market crisis” - however, the high and rising yield on UK debt is the result of a long-term loss of confidence after the Truss fiasco and the poor fundamentals left by the Tories and Brexit 1/…🧵 2/ … what’s happening throws Reeves’ budget into a new light. She rightly did a “belt and braces” on fiscal credibility, raising NI to plug the massive gaps left by Hunt - but the bond markets still do not see a growth story. Why? …

Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria 1/ ... hard to know the purpose without intel... 2/ ... at baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate"...

What a day! Assad fled. Saydnaya liberated. Russian power in the Middle East evaporating. Yes there's a vacuum, yes there are competing forces but Syrians now have a chance to shape their own future free of Russian/Iranian imperialism ... and Britain's response matters 1/ 🧵 2/ There is every chance that Syria fragments into three or four chaotic states. That's a function of the "multipolar world" the Putin/Xi acolytes on the far left are so fond of. Multipolarity = chaos is the theme of 2023-4. And Trump saying "stay out of it" is delusional...

Labour's defence industrial strategy framework is meaty: it learns the lessons from dirigist countries and marks a break from DSIS2021 - some highlights: 1/ The trade unions are at the table - and so are regional employment objectives... unions will be on the sector council ... 🧵
2/ It is frank about what is wrong.

Jeremy and his merry bunch echoing Putin's talking points - so let's take them one by one: 🧵1/ it is Russia who has escalated. Firing ATACMs and Storm Shadows is both Ukraine's right; both have been used before and changing the targeting is incremental. Yet they make no criticism of Putin firing the IRBM. Why? ... 2/ There is no threat of "all out escalation" between NATO and Russia. NATO is not fighting Russia. Nor did NATO supply the missiles fired at Russia: Britain and USA and France did. This is not a semantic difference. NATO is a defensive alliance ...

Trump's apparent victory has 5 big implications for the UK: 🧵

1️⃣ It can happen here. He will back Farage, the Musk propaganda machine will crank up against Labour; the Tories will remould themselves into Trump-lite Islamophobes ... 2️⃣ The UK needs to become the European leader of NATO, and all European countries need to hike spending on defence and democratic resilience. America is a permanently unreliable ally in this century

With Harris strengthening in late polls, there are three overnight scenarios: 1/ Harris wins clearly. Trump refuses to concede but is reliant on vexatious claims and lawsuits. Harris declares victory. World community recognises result quickly (btw look at these kids' faces!)... 2/ Harris wins but result relies on one or two states and MAGA begin a mixture of Jan 6, Charlottesville, Brooks Bros riot targeting these states alone. Recounts and lawsuits fly. At this stage Western govts have to seize first opportunity to recognise result or that fuels tension....

"We shall have only one class in this country - the working class..." Who said that? The woman in the picture behind @RachelReevesMP as she prepares the first real growth budget for 14 years. 1/ Here's what that means...🧵 2/ Today's budget is about choices. The first choice Labour will make is to promote growth - because the 2008 crisis, Brexit and post-Covid have all suppressed it, and we cannot deliver to working class people without growth...

See what's happening here? Putin's sympathisers - far left and far right - are calling Ukraine's justified demand for permission to defend itself "escalation" ... 1/ but it's not just about StormShadows for Ukraine ...

2/ The Western alliance of democratic countries is on the verge of big choices that, once taken, will lead to Russia's defeat. First off - ignoring Putin's claim that permission to strike equals direct war. If true Iran would be at war with Ukraine

Today's OBR report into the the long-term impacts of climate and ageing on UK debt is typically sobering: to follow neoliberal strictures, we would need 50 years of unremitting austerity...1/ But here's why we don't need to...🧵 2/ The OBR methodology is to project demands on spending against policies in place in March 2024. This always produces dire graphic projections... but there is good news: higher productivity wipes out the debt burden of demographic ageing and climate

Last night's anti-racist demos were a moral victory over fascism - much bigger in their political impact than their local effect 👇... but it's only the start. 1/ The fact remains: hundreds of thousands of English people hate their neighbours badly enough to attack them in riots... 2/ I was at Walthamstow. It was relaxed, peaceful, confident and well policed. But one train-load of "football lads" arriving would have led to disaster because - make no mistake, the targeted communities are ready for self-defence...

About tonight's fascist hit-list. It's been widely circulated but some far-right influencers are now putting it around that it's a "state provocation", and saying don't show up... 1/ There are counter-demos planned, and strong policing/security in the most likely targets - but... 2/ the real test comes this weekend. I am monitoring far-right channels and can see no further public calls for targeting. The fascist networks are now stirring a new narrative: that it is Muslims perpetrating the violence...hence the fascists most likely COA is provocations...