Four moves just happened in the US-Iran battle: Trump leaks peace conditions; Iran makes extreme counter-demands; Trump threatens to destroy energy plants; Iran threatens to destroy Gulf desalination plants... this is "escalate to de-escalate"... 1/


2/ analysis: First off, Trump is explicitly threatening a war crime; the UK should have no part in that. Iran's threat is also criminal. Second - Israel seems absent from the exchange. Third: Iran's maximalist demands are actually a plea for inclusion in a rules based order -

The British government is not "confused" or unclear - it's been crystal clear it did not take part in the US/Israeli attack on Iran because there is no legal basis to do so; in addition its aims are ill defined... 1/ so Labour MPs need to get real... 2/ We're under political attack from a Tory party that would have willingly breached the UN Charter. We're sticking by the Charter - everything we've done so far is lawful under Article 51...

As Morgan McSweeney resigns - here's some basic politics for any member of the Labour Party: 1/ We cannot have a leadership contest now. Why? Because the bond market is a "daily referendum on UK political stability"...the right wing press baying for Keir to resign know this ... 2/ The rat pack of podcasters and YouTubers will have a field day stoking up chaos... a doom loop of bad headlines and soaring bond yields. Therefore Keir Starmer has to remain PM. Let's have a clear report from the ISC - and it should not be difficult to get to the point...

In a jaw dropping interview with Channel 4 News, Zack Polanski claims he wants both "to reform NATO from within" and replace it with "an alternative alliance of countries based in Europe… plus Brazil and Mexico and global south countries"... let's unpack... 1/ 2/ NATO is an alliance formed by treaty. It is the lynchpin of the rules based global order, together with the UN. All 31 countries are signed up to defend each other. Can you imagine what would happen if we, the 5th biggest economy, left it?

Zack Polanski's puerile name-calling during an international crisis is testament to a profound lack of seriousness... here's the sum total of the GPEW's response so far... 🧵1/~
2/~ Starmer has not "appeased" Trump. He has conducted tough diplomacy over Ukraine, talking Trump back from a total sell-out; he has banned all relevant arms sales to Israel; and on Greenland he has made defence of Danish sovereignty and Greenlanders self-determination a red line

Russia's talking point of the day already being echoed by useful idiot savants ... "They can't invade Europe because they couldn't defeat Ukraine" - here's why that's wrong ... 1/ They have 350k troops in Belarus trained to do exactly that ... 2/ Russia just carried out an attack exercise in Belarus where it practised only with its strategic forces - showing how it will use lessons learned in Ukraine to menace Europe once there is a frozen conflict in Ukraine

I'm a China hawk but I am sick of Tory duplicity and 💩 Fleet Street commentary on "why don't we designate China a threat"? Neither Johnson, Sunak nor Truss did so, despite Truss threatening... and here's why: 1/ This is what a "threat" to National Security looks like... 2/ ... it's a nuclear capable Russian aircraft with a missile that can travel at Mach 10: three of them spent 12 minutes in NATO airspace last month... and the RAF regularly has to intercept these and other Russian threats...

I just used my fingerprint to log into my Apple computer; I used facial recognition to pay for an e-bike on my Apple phone; I ordered a repeat prescription on the NHS app that holds every detail of every illness I have ever been treated for on a central server...1/ 2/ ... I had to show my drivers' licence to get into a briefing from a civil servant; I used the e-gates at LCY to cross the border without having to speak to a human being... why would I object to "the state" issuing me with digital proof of ID?...

Labour's reshuffle was deftly completed and has rewarded competence and narrative skill. Task now is to start not just delivering but telling a story of who we are - I am proud of what Labour is achieving... here's one example... 1/ 2/ here's another... bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

What happened in D.C.? 🧵1/ We, outside the classified zone, won't know for a while - because the European leaders pulled of something surreal: they pulled Trump back from getting sucked in to Putin's mental framework ... but... 2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....

There are 3 historical reference points for Trump's Alaska disgrace ... Munich '38, Berlin '40, Moscow '41... which is closest? 1/🧵we've had no readout from an honest source...


2/ At Munich democracies signed up to dismembering Czechoslovakia, sidelining USSR with which it had a mutual defence pact ... so this wasn't Munich, yet...

Global investors are selling US stocks because they know Trump's tariffs will kill globalisation and trigger recession 1/... but why are they selling bonds at the same time? 🧵 2/ ....They're selling US bonds - which they would normally buy as a safe haven - because bonds have become gambling chips for hedge funds who are gambling on massive credit ... as @FT explains

Britain we - and we alone - have a major diplomatic problem. Witkoff, Trump's envoy to RU, claimed on record that the four disputed provinces of Ukraine plus Crimea were "handed over by Kruschev" 1/ We are signatories of Budapest... 2/ Here's what the Budapest Memorandum says. Very clear: that we, the USA and Russia respect the *existing borders* of Ukraine. If Witkoff's position is shared by the State Dept we are, as of now, the sole remaining guarantor of UA sovereignty ...

Make no mistake: Putin wants a puppet government in Kyiv and enforced neutrality/demilitarisation for Ukraine. 1/ Having failed to do achieve this through war, he now wants to achieve it through destabilisation... so the prevarication about the ceasefire offer is just for show🧵 2/ As @ZelenskyyUa points out: prevarication and delay is Putin's modus operandi. I'd go further - it's part of the Reflexive Control doctrine he operates against "state victims" which in this instance is the UK/EU...

Hegseth's Rammstein speech is a watershed moment for Europe. It means the USA is no longer a reliable ally, even if its democracy survives ... 1/ ... but Hegseth is right on one thing. We now have to spend a lot more on defence 🧵 2/ The FT reports HMG quibbling over 2.3% of GDP on defence and 2.6% - but that's now irrelevant... Trump is demanding 5% and may accept 3.5%... and it's clear what we need to spend it on...

UK bond yield opens at 4.9% There is no “bond market crisis” - however, the high and rising yield on UK debt is the result of a long-term loss of confidence after the Truss fiasco and the poor fundamentals left by the Tories and Brexit 1/…🧵 2/ … what’s happening throws Reeves’ budget into a new light. She rightly did a “belt and braces” on fiscal credibility, raising NI to plug the massive gaps left by Hunt - but the bond markets still do not see a growth story. Why? …

Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria 1/ ... hard to know the purpose without intel... 2/ ... at baseline it creates uncertainty, shakes the tree, shows a range of options for escalation... but I keep coming back to Orban's taunt against Zelensky - "this is the most dangerous point of the conflict" - ie a warning of "escalate to de-escalate"...

What a day! Assad fled. Saydnaya liberated. Russian power in the Middle East evaporating. Yes there's a vacuum, yes there are competing forces but Syrians now have a chance to shape their own future free of Russian/Iranian imperialism ... and Britain's response matters 1/ 🧵 2/ There is every chance that Syria fragments into three or four chaotic states. That's a function of the "multipolar world" the Putin/Xi acolytes on the far left are so fond of. Multipolarity = chaos is the theme of 2023-4. And Trump saying "stay out of it" is delusional...

Labour's defence industrial strategy framework is meaty: it learns the lessons from dirigist countries and marks a break from DSIS2021 - some highlights: 1/ The trade unions are at the table - and so are regional employment objectives... unions will be on the sector council ... 🧵
2/ It is frank about what is wrong.

Jeremy and his merry bunch echoing Putin's talking points - so let's take them one by one: 🧵1/ it is Russia who has escalated. Firing ATACMs and Storm Shadows is both Ukraine's right; both have been used before and changing the targeting is incremental. Yet they make no criticism of Putin firing the IRBM. Why? ... 2/ There is no threat of "all out escalation" between NATO and Russia. NATO is not fighting Russia. Nor did NATO supply the missiles fired at Russia: Britain and USA and France did. This is not a semantic difference. NATO is a defensive alliance ...

Trump's apparent victory has 5 big implications for the UK: 🧵

1️⃣ It can happen here. He will back Farage, the Musk propaganda machine will crank up against Labour; the Tories will remould themselves into Trump-lite Islamophobes ... 2️⃣ The UK needs to become the European leader of NATO, and all European countries need to hike spending on defence and democratic resilience. America is a permanently unreliable ally in this century