There is huge intrigue in Italy at the moment about why Germany's coronavirus death rate is lower.
Various professors are speculating, without evidence, that it's because Germany is counting deaths differently. That's now being spread around as fact.
Truth is, we don't know yet..
Various professors are speculating, without evidence, that it's because Germany is counting deaths differently. That's now being spread around as fact.
Truth is, we don't know yet..
What do we know?
1. Italy's testing is limited to the famous or the very ill due to capacity constraints. This raises the apparent death rate. Germany's is comparatively lower because its much wide testing captures many more mild and asymptomatic case.
1. Italy's testing is limited to the famous or the very ill due to capacity constraints. This raises the apparent death rate. Germany's is comparatively lower because its much wide testing captures many more mild and asymptomatic case.
2. It's possible people in Italy are sicker because their outbreak started earlier. Germany's fatalities may rise in time.
3. In the centre of the outbreak in Italy there aren't enough ventilators for people who can't breathe. Doctors are open about this meaning more people die.
3. In the centre of the outbreak in Italy there aren't enough ventilators for people who can't breathe. Doctors are open about this meaning more people die.
There are speculations about population age and multi-generational mixing, but this is exactly that: speculation.
We just don't know yet. The data is incomplete.
The median age of those who died from Covid-19 in Germany is 83, in Italy the average is 81.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
We just don't know yet. The data is incomplete.
The median age of those who died from Covid-19 in Germany is 83, in Italy the average is 81.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
One baseless theory spread about is that Italy counts all those who died 'with' coronavirus while other countries only count those who died 'of' coronavirus, discounting ppl with other conditions.
.@gavinjones10 checked with the ministries: it's not true
.@gavinjones10 checked with the ministries: it's not true
As Mattia points out, this again shows the importance of open data and transparency: publishing not just positives, but testing numbers and parameters. Comparing countries with very different testing regimes like e.g NL and DE risks very flawed conclusions
Statement from Germany health authority RKI via @antonia_yamin:
Deaths of people with Covid-19 count towards coronavirus fatalities in Germany, even if they have other conditions.
This would only not be the case if, e.g., they were hit by a car.
Deaths of people with Covid-19 count towards coronavirus fatalities in Germany, even if they have other conditions.
This would only not be the case if, e.g., they were hit by a car.
Potentially, a clue from @ECDC_EU:
"...up to 9% of overall cases in Italy were among healthcare workers... they disproportionately affect the elderly and vulnerable populations" ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…
"...up to 9% of overall cases in Italy were among healthcare workers... they disproportionately affect the elderly and vulnerable populations" ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…
