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Bundestag's budgetary committe approved the next phase of the joint Franco/German #MGCS next-gen MBT programme last week. (Source: bit.ly/2vFPEzk), an important step in their joint efforts for a future #EuroTank. Image
This is the 2-year system architecture definition phase, which will harmonise the countries requirements and lay the groundwork to alllow early prototype system demonstrators to be manufactured from mid-2023.
Plan is for a 2035 initial fielding, which is quite an aggressive timescale for contemporary procurement, especially if this is to be a true basis for a 'next-gen' platform and not just a highly modernised Leopard 2/Leclerc hybrid. Image
In the interim France is completing upgrades to its Leclerc fleet, Germany is carrying out 2A7V upgrades, as well as developing a further 2A8 package for the future. ImageImageImage
MGCS is one of 2 major future MBT programmes (other being US Decisive Lethality Platform under OMFV) that are likely to form a binary MBT choice for most Western-like users seeking to replace their tanks from the mid-2030s.
The future US offering may be optionally or fully unmanned under the #OMFV/#RCV programmes, but doubtless requirement for a more conventional manned tank will become clearer soon. Image
Whilst an offering from RBSL may also emerge (they stated at DSEi 2019 that their CR2 LEP turret represented the basis of their notional future MBT architecture), for now MGCS and DLP are the two that European users will pick from. Image
Some new national offerings will continue to be produced alongside Russian and Chinese products (the latter 2 being procured widely by those unable to access Western OEMs) but these are unlikely to be acquired by Western-like countries.
What might it look like? Early MGCS work offered four avenues (bit.ly/2vCMkoD) but this has, as expected, moved to a relatively conventional configuration - tracked, turret with large calibre gun, (maybe optionally) manned platform. Image
Envisaged as a family of heavy AFV not just a tank - MBT, IFV, APC, C2 etc. Manned/unmanned teamings were cited, as well as liberal use of new technologies/capabilities - 130+ mm gun, hybrid APS, signature management, hosted UAS/UGV etc. Image
The future MBT market is showing continued consolidation of offerings, with a lot of money up for grabs. Most Western users use Leopard 2 or M1 with OSD of ~2040. Niche fleets like Ariete and Challenger 2 also align with those dates and will likely consolidate on replacement.
Depending on how many users would seek to acquire broaer variants than just MBT, the value could readily exceed USD100 billion for these opportunities, and set up winning supplier with >50 years of support and upgrade revenues of even greater value. One to watch. /end
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