How have state-led targeting ops altered ISK’s threat & trajectory in AFG & PAK? What is the nature & extent of #ISK's manpower losses, including its leadership? CTC report by @AmiraJadoon & @mines_andrew examines ops against ISK 2015-2018. THREAD ctc.usma.edu/broken-not-def… 
A big thanks to everyone who supported this extensive project! We are thankful to @asfandyarmir @CraigAWhiteside @DonRassler @nakissapjahan & Brian Dodwell for their excellent reviews which made this report a much better product & @KristinaKHummel for her fantastic copyediting!
Key highlights: ISK incurred the greatest number of losses in 3 core districts of S. Nangarhar (Achin, Deh Bala, & Kot), which speaks to the coalition’s success in containing the group. In AFG, ISK’s losses amounted to a total of 11,668 deaths, 696 captured, & 375 surrendered.
Fig 1.3 (a) graphs the magnitude of ISK’s losses in Afghanistan over a monthly timeline. January 2016, July 2016, April 2017, and July 2018 stand out as months with high concentrations of ISK losses, the latter 3 months accounting for over 500 losses each.
Report also tracked ISK's leadership losses: majority of leadership losses in AFG were centered around major coalition operational surges prior to 2018, the most effective of which was Op Hamza in 2017, which eliminated a substantial portion of the group’s leadership.
Average losses by targeting tactic: In Afghanistan, the coalition relied heavily on air-ground operations to inflict losses upon ISK; air and drone strikes dropped steadily over time and police raids and ground ops remained limited.
Despite heavy manpower losses in AFG, ISK's total lethality (killed+wounded), lethality per attack, & total # of attacks each year have risen, minus a slight drop in # of attacks in 2018. ISK’s lethality per attack rose considerably in 2018 despite a drop in total # of attacks.
Across all four years, ISK losses in PAK were the highest in Punjab, followed by KPK, and the lowest in Baluchistan, which was the location of the majority of ISK’s attacks. Losses may be connected to provincial-level counterterrorism capacity.
In PAK post 2016, ISK’s total manpower losses declined until 2018 and there was a downward trend in ISK’s # of attacks. However, ISK’s lethality per attack rose sharply b/w 2016 and 2017, & remained higher in 2018 than in 2015/16.
ISK’s ability to sustain itself will partly be shaped by whether or not it continues to be subjected to consistent, simultaneous, and multipronged targeting operations in both AFG and PAK that prevent the group from establishing a physical stronghold in any province.
