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We all desperately need some good news. So here's a somewhat encouraging development.

In Italy, the daily rate of new infections may be starting to trend down:

March 21st: 6,557.
March 22nd: 5,560
March 23rd: 4,789
March 24th: 5,249

Social distancing works. Stay the course.
Source:
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
And the data for March 25th has just been released: 5,210 new cases.

The decrease in new cases seems to be slow but, so far, pretty steady.

🤞🤞🤞
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
In the past weeks, I haven’t been tweeting much about COVID-19. The news about it was so contradictory that I didn’t feel my overall understanding was improving.

Now, three new developments add up to a bleak picture: Deliverance is not in sight.

[Thread.]theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
In the past weeks, I had three great hopes for how to end the nightmare:

1) Fatality rates might be much lower than we thought.
2) An effective treatment could become available soon.
3) We could put an effective test-and-trace system in place.

All three hopes now seem remote.
1)
We now have the first results from a statewide antibody test in New York State.

The test finds that the coronavirus is much more prevalent than previous case counts suggested: about 14% of New York residents have had COVID-19.

Read 16 tweets
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
Alright, friends.

Never have I ever... seen The Sound of Music. Until now.

Please follow along for an incoherent live tweet as I watch (the first half of) the movie.
I'm sort of dreading this experience.

Growing up in Germany gave me an irrational fear of this movie.

And now you'll hate me if I hate it.

Anyway. The hills are alive, apparently.
The nuns are pretty good at social distancing so far.
Read 27 tweets
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Yascha Mounk
@Yascha_Mounk
A big unanswered questions about COVID-19 is the true infection rate. How many people have already had it?

As testing ramps up, there are reports of random samples and/or antibody tests in many localities. But it's hard to keep track.

So if you have a data point, add it 👇.
I'll start.

One widely reported study at the German epicenter in Heinsberg found that 14% of residents have antibodies.

The problem: It's unclear whether the test they used can distinguish between COVID-19 and common colds caused by other coronaviruses.

zeit.de/wissen/gesundh…
Some anecdotal evidence suggests that the true number of people who've already had COVID-19 may be much higher than widely assumed.

But this representative study of the Austrian population makes that unlikely. At present, far less than 1% is infected.

theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
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