In the past weeks, I haven’t been tweeting much about COVID-19. The news about it was so contradictory that I didn’t feel my overall understanding was improving.
Now, three new developments add up to a bleak picture: Deliverance is not in sight.
[Thread.]theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Now, three new developments add up to a bleak picture: Deliverance is not in sight.
[Thread.]theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
In the past weeks, I had three great hopes for how to end the nightmare:
1) Fatality rates might be much lower than we thought.
2) An effective treatment could become available soon.
3) We could put an effective test-and-trace system in place.
All three hopes now seem remote.
1) Fatality rates might be much lower than we thought.
2) An effective treatment could become available soon.
3) We could put an effective test-and-trace system in place.
All three hopes now seem remote.
1)
We now have the first results from a statewide antibody test in New York State.
The test finds that the coronavirus is much more prevalent than previous case counts suggested: about 14% of New York residents have had COVID-19.
We now have the first results from a statewide antibody test in New York State.
The test finds that the coronavirus is much more prevalent than previous case counts suggested: about 14% of New York residents have had COVID-19.
This seems like good news: If a lot more people have had COVID-19, then it’s far less deadly than we thought!
But the news is not nearly good enough: Based on the numbers from New York, it could take about TWO MILLION deaths across America to reach herd immunity.
But the news is not nearly good enough: Based on the numbers from New York, it could take about TWO MILLION deaths across America to reach herd immunity.
Antibody tests are far from perfect at this stage: They may have a lot of false positives. Their samples aren't truly representative. And different studies have found very different results.
(Here is a round-up and some very rough-and-ready math on what they *may* imply)
(Here is a round-up and some very rough-and-ready math on what they *may* imply)
But here's the point:
The best studies we have imply that millions may have to die in the United States for us to reach herd immunity.
Until that possibility is ruled out, plans to brave the virus by going back to normal remain in the realm of the stupid or the sociopathic.
The best studies we have imply that millions may have to die in the United States for us to reach herd immunity.
Until that possibility is ruled out, plans to brave the virus by going back to normal remain in the realm of the stupid or the sociopathic.
2) No effective treatment is in sight
Trump has talked up hydroxychloroquine.
The first serious studies from France and the United States bear bad news: it does not help patients with COViD-19.
According to the VA, patients who took the drug were actually *more* likely to die.
Trump has talked up hydroxychloroquine.
The first serious studies from France and the United States bear bad news: it does not help patients with COViD-19.
According to the VA, patients who took the drug were actually *more* likely to die.
Most doctors never believed that an antimalarial drug could heal COVID-19. But many help up real hope for another drug: remdesivir.
Alas, the first randomized clinical trial found that remdesivir "was not associated with clinical or virological benefits."
bbc.com/news/world-524…
Alas, the first randomized clinical trial found that remdesivir "was not associated with clinical or virological benefits."
bbc.com/news/world-524…
This is not the final word on these drugs. I remain hopeful that we may yet discover other effective treatments. And it's imaginable that a vaccine could become available faster than experts predict.
But, for now, hopes of quickly finding a wonder drug have been dashed.
But, for now, hopes of quickly finding a wonder drug have been dashed.
3) The U.S. Isn't Anywhere Close to Test-and-Trace
It now seems less likely than ever that the United States will do what is necessary to reopen the economy without causing a second wave of deadly infections.
It now seems less likely than ever that the United States will do what is necessary to reopen the economy without causing a second wave of deadly infections.
Two months ago, Trump promised that anyone who wanted a test for the coronavirus could get one.
Today, America has still conducted only about 5.4 million tests. According to experts, the country needs to increase its testing rate at least threefold to reopen safely.
Today, America has still conducted only about 5.4 million tests. According to experts, the country needs to increase its testing rate at least threefold to reopen safely.
Some countries now have systems in place to inform those who've been exposed and ensure that they self-isolate.
America is leaving this task to states that don't enjoy the trust or resources to implement a comprehensive system.
(Also, viruses don't, um, care about state lines.)
America is leaving this task to states that don't enjoy the trust or resources to implement a comprehensive system.
(Also, viruses don't, um, care about state lines.)
If he were truly interested in limiting the damage to America’s economy, and opening up the country, Trump would be laser-focused on remedying these problems.
Instead, the president has doubled down on culture wars and quack cures.
Instead, the president has doubled down on culture wars and quack cures.
There *has* been some good news in the past weeks:
* The fatality rate, though terrible, is likely lower than early estimates suggested.
* Americans have followed social-distancing guidelines to an impressive degree.
* The number of new infections and fatalities is ebbing.
* The fatality rate, though terrible, is likely lower than early estimates suggested.
* Americans have followed social-distancing guidelines to an impressive degree.
* The number of new infections and fatalities is ebbing.
But:
COVID-19 is too deadly to let it rip through the population. An effective cure is not in sight. And the federal government seems incapable of implementing test-and-trace.
All in all, the prospects for a quick deliverance from the pandemic are more remote than ever.
COVID-19 is too deadly to let it rip through the population. An effective cure is not in sight. And the federal government seems incapable of implementing test-and-trace.
All in all, the prospects for a quick deliverance from the pandemic are more remote than ever.
Please share this thread and my article @TheAtlantic.
And please do let me know 👇 if you think I've missed some big reason for optimism. (Believe me, I'd be happy to stand corrected.)
[End.]
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
And please do let me know 👇 if you think I've missed some big reason for optimism. (Believe me, I'd be happy to stand corrected.)
[End.]
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
