New paper on the 1918 influenza finds that cities that were most aggressive about banning public gatherings and other “non-pharmaceutical interventions” BOTH reduced deaths AND saw faster growth after the pandemic
"In the year after the 1918 Flu Pandemic, there is an uptick in banking assets in cities with early and longer interventions after '18. The effect is statistically significant and economically sizable...

"The economy performed better in areas with more aggressive interventions."
There are more important statistics in a pandemic that annual banking asset growth.

But when people are saying we should "sacrifice lives" to "save the economy," consider the possibility that the economy is people, and reducing mass death is a pretty good idea for a stimulus.

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More from @DKThomp

Feb 22
NEW POD: @wolfejosh and I talked about
- the tech stock meltdown
- the "what sucks?" theory of innovation history
- why tech breakthrus often begin w/ tools for the disabled
- "wise mind" & dialectical behavioral therapy
- 4 theories for seeing the future

open.spotify.com/episode/2uvnva…
- @wolfejosh's 4 frames for seeing the present & predicting the future

1. The "What Sucks?" Theory of Innovation

"Every entrepreneur that has ever started anything looks around and says, "Huh, that sucks. There's got to be a better way." Step 1: Venting. Step 2: Inventing
2. "Science Fiction —> Science Fact"

Our capacity to invent the future is a function of our capacity to imagine it. Science fiction inspires people to create what doesn’t yet exist. Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
Americans' satisfaction with "the way things are going in U.S." is near a 40-year low.

Americans' satisfaction with "the way things are going in personal life" is near a 40-year high.

news.gallup.com/poll/389375/sa…
The group with the highest level of personal satisfaction: weekly religious-service attendants.

This group leans Republican.

The group with the lowest level of national satisfaction? Republicans.
interpretations:

1. life is "hate congress, like your congressman" all the way down
2. ppl are resilient, but judgey: so the personal satisfaction line is straight but the nat'l satisfaction line is jagged
3. news is a VR where everything is always bad, even when life is okay
Read 7 tweets
Feb 14
I wrote about why America makes it so hard to become a doctor

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

The U.S. has the world's most expensive medical school education and a deliberate policy to constrict residency spots. No wonder we have fewer physicians/capita than every country in Europe.
A conspiracy to limit the number of primary care physicians in America, maximize their debt, and raise prices for consumers would look practically identical to existing U.S. medical education policy.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
America has one of the longest and most expensive medical education programs in the OECD.

We have fewer primary care physicians per capita than just about every country in Europe.

The world is a policy choice.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
One of the most popular modes of commentary is what you could call DGAF Populist.

DGAF Populists—Rogan, Chappelle, Maher—are anti-PC, anti-GOP, anti-left, anti-neurotic, anti-"woke," pro-"do your thing," economically left, culturally libertarian, and linguistically rude (1/x)
You can point to a thousand differences between Rogan, Chapelle, & Maher but just bear with me on this commonality of style.

The popularity of the DGAF Populist style is really important, because of how it intersects with media economics and media coverage. (2/x)
Aggregator economics push firms like Netflix & Spotify to buy exclusive rights to popular content in a world where a lot of culture is political, where politico-culture analysis is popular, and where DFAF-P is often the most popular flavor (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
Feb 4
I wrote about why Denmark is done with COVID

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

This week, Denmark led the world in infections per capita. It also suddenly voted to end all restrictions—no mask mandate, no COVID passports. I talked to researcher and govt adviser @M_B_Petersen about why.
When I say Denmark leads the world in COVID cases per capita, I mean, literally—if you don't count the South Pacific archipelago of Palau—it's number one in cases per million people.

But the relationship between cases and ICU admits has been shattered.
There's no mystery here.

Denmark broke the tether between cases and severe outcomes bc it's one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.

- 81% of adults are doubly vaxxed
- 61% have booster shots

Denmark's booster-shots-per-capita is about 2.5X higher than the U.S.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 31
Every once in a while, an aspiring journalist will ask for writing tips and I make something up on the spot.

So, for today's newsletter, I wrote down all my tips—well, 4 of them; tips are hard!—so I'll always have a cheat sheet if somebody asks again.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
1. Simple is smart.

School rewards people who learn and use big words. But the real superpower is the ability to use simple language to decode important and complicated ideas. Beware the illusion that "complexity = intelligence."
2. Be interesting.

Interesting = novel + important
Read 6 tweets

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