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Feb 22 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
NEW POD: @wolfejosh and I talked about
- the tech stock meltdown
- the "what sucks?" theory of innovation history
- why tech breakthrus often begin w/ tools for the disabled
- "wise mind" & dialectical behavioral therapy
- 4 theories for seeing the future

open.spotify.com/episode/2uvnva…
- @wolfejosh's 4 frames for seeing the present & predicting the future

1. The "What Sucks?" Theory of Innovation

"Every entrepreneur that has ever started anything looks around and says, "Huh, that sucks. There's got to be a better way." Step 1: Venting. Step 2: Inventing
2. "Science Fiction —> Science Fact"

Our capacity to invent the future is a function of our capacity to imagine it. Science fiction inspires people to create what doesn’t yet exist.
2b. Many technologies that can make all humans superman were initially invented to overcome disability.

- 15th century optical technology invented to help ppl read books eventually helped astronomers see stars
- Curb Cuts!
3. The Twain/Fitzgerald/Schopenhauer guide to seeing the present clearly: embrace contradiction, beware false certainty, and pay special attention to what other people aren't paying attention to
4. The triple-failure theory of anticipating risk: Failure comes from a failure to anticipate failure

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More from @DKThomp

Derek Thompson Profile picture
Feb 23
I wrote about the data showing Americans really, really don't want to go back to the office

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

I think we're still only just beginning to understand the ripple effects of Peak Office on downtown economies, the geography of labor, and the future of work
1/ First, the data.

Stadiums are packed. Travel is back. Restaurant reservations are surging. But office occupancy is moribund.

Even movie theaters—a business sometimes written off as “doomed”—have recovered almost twice as much as offices. Image
2/ What was once a hot take is now a stone-cold reality: The office is never coming all the way back.

Stanford economist @I_Am_NickBloom put it bluntly: “The number of person-days in the office is never going back to pre-pandemic average—ever." Image
Read 10 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Feb 16
Americans' satisfaction with "the way things are going in U.S." is near a 40-year low.

Americans' satisfaction with "the way things are going in personal life" is near a 40-year high.

news.gallup.com/poll/389375/sa…
The group with the highest level of personal satisfaction: weekly religious-service attendants.

This group leans Republican.

The group with the lowest level of national satisfaction? Republicans.
interpretations:

1. life is "hate congress, like your congressman" all the way down
2. ppl are resilient, but judgey: so the personal satisfaction line is straight but the nat'l satisfaction line is jagged
3. news is a VR where everything is always bad, even when life is okay
Read 7 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Feb 14
I wrote about why America makes it so hard to become a doctor

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

The U.S. has the world's most expensive medical school education and a deliberate policy to constrict residency spots. No wonder we have fewer physicians/capita than every country in Europe.
A conspiracy to limit the number of primary care physicians in America, maximize their debt, and raise prices for consumers would look practically identical to existing U.S. medical education policy.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
America has one of the longest and most expensive medical education programs in the OECD.

We have fewer primary care physicians per capita than just about every country in Europe.

The world is a policy choice.
Read 4 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Feb 7
One of the most popular modes of commentary is what you could call DGAF Populist.

DGAF Populists—Rogan, Chappelle, Maher—are anti-PC, anti-GOP, anti-left, anti-neurotic, anti-"woke," pro-"do your thing," economically left, culturally libertarian, and linguistically rude (1/x)
You can point to a thousand differences between Rogan, Chapelle, & Maher but just bear with me on this commonality of style.

The popularity of the DGAF Populist style is really important, because of how it intersects with media economics and media coverage. (2/x)
Aggregator economics push firms like Netflix & Spotify to buy exclusive rights to popular content in a world where a lot of culture is political, where politico-culture analysis is popular, and where DFAF-P is often the most popular flavor (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Feb 4
I wrote about why Denmark is done with COVID

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

This week, Denmark led the world in infections per capita. It also suddenly voted to end all restrictions—no mask mandate, no COVID passports. I talked to researcher and govt adviser @M_B_Petersen about why.
When I say Denmark leads the world in COVID cases per capita, I mean, literally—if you don't count the South Pacific archipelago of Palau—it's number one in cases per million people.

But the relationship between cases and ICU admits has been shattered.
There's no mystery here.

Denmark broke the tether between cases and severe outcomes bc it's one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.

- 81% of adults are doubly vaxxed
- 61% have booster shots

Denmark's booster-shots-per-capita is about 2.5X higher than the U.S.
Read 7 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 31
Every once in a while, an aspiring journalist will ask for writing tips and I make something up on the spot.

So, for today's newsletter, I wrote down all my tips—well, 4 of them; tips are hard!—so I'll always have a cheat sheet if somebody asks again.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
1. Simple is smart.

School rewards people who learn and use big words. But the real superpower is the ability to use simple language to decode important and complicated ideas. Beware the illusion that "complexity = intelligence."
2. Be interesting.

Interesting = novel + important
Read 6 tweets

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