Here’s what he said, and what I learned
amgreatness.com/2020/03/27/soc…
The Institute received a $279M, 10-year grant from Bill & Melinda Gates
It has better hospital data than most state governments, which is why so many of them rely on the Institute to forecast how many ventilators they’ll need.
“If you’re coming from the study that found 2M would die, it’s good news” But “the assumption is we will keep in place soc distancing, including school closures, non-essential business closures, & stay-at-home until end of May”
As such, it is not an outlier
The fact that the methods of the two models are radically different and yet converge on similar conclusions adds credibility
“Both are legitimate,” Murray said. “The first model is a great call to action and super useful. But if you’re trying to help the hospital and fire-fighting service, you need our model.”
“We estimate a peak of deaths right around Easter. After that, governors will be reluctant to have the risk of a resurgence.”
@nbcbayarea h/t @jvanderbeken
nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavir…
abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus…
- Latest IHME death toll estimate is 94k, up from 81k
- White House uses Bill Gates-funded IHME model, which uses up-to-date hosp. data
covid19.healthdata.org/projections
- Gates says we can keep COVID-19 death toll to "well short of" 100k - 200k deaths
cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bil…