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About to be on @washingtonwatch after Franklin Graham. This is certainly a new experience for me.
What a day. Got to speak to @NPRKelly in the early afternoon and tell her she's a journalistic hero because she asks hard questions and doesn't let people squirm out.
This afternoon on @FRCdc with which I strongly disagree about nearly every political topic, but which is helping spread the message to take #COVIDー19 seriously. Thanks to both.
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Comment on jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… with @sarahcobey @KeyaJoshi3 shows conclusions change dramatically if use more appropriate Wallinga-Teunis method for R(t) estimation. Comment on the site and at github.com/keyajoshi/Pan_… with figure
This paper reached the alarming conclusion that COVID-19 containment requires involuntary out-of-home quarantine, a view now repeated by many who should know better. The accompanying editorial questioned this extreme interpretation jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… @eliowa
We add to these questions by noting the conclusion sensitively depends on use of Cori et al. method rather than Wallinga-Teunis -- both useful for different purposes, but the choice of method here makes decline in R(t) appear later than it really is.
Read 5 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
A beautiful if heart-wrenching column by Rachel Kennedy @Princeton on why we must focus now -- not only later -- on disparities in COVID impact by race and other factors. Including a tribute to her mother on anniversary of her death. dailyprincetonian.com/article/2020/0…
Apart from the personal aspects (the author's family and @meiralevinson's family are old friends so I have a little connection) this column reminded me of a remarkable document from @who: who.int/ethics/publica…
This document focuses importantly on the fact that if a particular group does not have its health outcomes monitored, it cannot get the resources needed to improve those outcomes. Powerful case for racial/ethnic/etc reporting of COVID outcomes.
Read 3 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
@trvrb I should take 12 hours away from work more often. I had thought about reading this study carefully last night and commenting, but slept instead. When I woke up I found @nataliexdean @trvrb and @jjcherian did most of the work. I agree with all the statistical points of these 3.
@trvrb @nataliexdean @jjcherian I'd add that some of the data gathered but not in this initial report are important for their own sake and could help address some of the concerns.
@trvrb @nataliexdean @jjcherian Two key data elements not reported here are 1) the symptom reports from those testing + and - and 2) the crosstab of IgG+/IgM+. Test positive seems to be defined as positive on either, but relevance of the company's and Stanford's validation expts would be clearer if broken down
Read 23 tweets

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