@mlipsitch@mastodon.social This place is getting more sinister, maybe on my way out. Director @CCDD_HSPH Tweets in personal capacity. Didn’t pay for blue check
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Mar 8, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We are readvertising the opening for a branch chief in the Predict Division at the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @CDCgovusajobs.gov/job/711548000 If you applied previously and are NOT a US Govt employee PLEASE REAPPLY. New apps welcome too.
These are two positions to lead the Real Time Monitoring branch in Predict which will produce disease scenario models, forecasts, and nowcasts and the Analytic Response Branch producing custom analyses to aid specific decision making
Jan 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Looking for leaders in infectious disease modeling and analytics for roles as Branch Chiefs in the Predict Division of @CDCgov Ctr for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics usajobs.gov/job/701324000 posted as Supervisory Data Scientist GS-15. Seeking great people to join a great team!
For those new to applying to federal jobs, follow the tips here dol.gov/agencies/ilab/… and be VERY explicit about how you meet each qualification so that an HR professional can verify you do.
Oct 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I’ve been saying that one flaw of the review system for ePPP experiments is that when scientists— for good scientific reasons— change their plans there is no review of the new plans once the original proposal approved. Case in point the Boston Pub Health Comm approved…
BU’s plans in March 2020. The experiment generating all the discussion could not have been planned then bc Omicron hadn’t been observed yet. Antigenic variability was still not a clear threat in most scientists’ minds Even the type of experiment may not have been conceived.
Oct 19, 2022 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
So here's my take on the BU experiments. I know you can't say this on Twitter, but it is my current state of understanding, possibly imperfect, subject to revision with better understanding, and trying to make sense rather than condemn opponents.
First, these are unquestionably gain-of-function experiments. As many have noted, this is a very broad term encompassing many harmless and some potentially dangerous experiments. GOF is a scientific technique, not an epithet. The wildtype "backbone" virus gains immune escape...
Jul 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Want to help shape US outbreak public health #RiskCommunications? More positions now open at the @CDCgov Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics in our Inform Division
Risk Communications Team Lead (Lead Health Communication Specialist), grade 14: usajobs.gov/job/665886900
Also in Inform:
Health Scientist, grade 13: usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDet…
Thrilled to announce that our data science (modeling/analytics) jobs are now live for the @cdcgov Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics:
closing June 3 so apply now!
Analyst (GS-13) usajobs.gov/job/655773800
Dec 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hey #econtwitter is there a common explanation behind 1) the incomparability of medical data from different EMR instances; 2) the incomparability of mattresses made by different manufacturers and sold by different retailers 3) the incompatibility of different mfg camera lenses?
Feels like the common thread may be that the opportunity to prove oneself better/ better for the cost that would arise from comparability is less appealing than the risk of being proven worse; better to hold onto market share from loyalists than risk competition.
Dec 18, 2021 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
the following thread is purely my personal opinion as a @CCDD_HSPH@HarvardEpi epidemiologist. I would welcome feedback though I am trying to take some breaks so don't promise to reply. Thanks in advance to anyone who provides critique or further info
Impact of #Omicron obviously depends on severity. Number of cases is growing exceptionally fast and several countries have seen such growth continue for quite a while (weeks, which is a lot of time with doubling times of small number of days
Dec 6, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Clear explainer of a very carefully nuanced report. While the main thing to say is "small numbers," it does seem that the average severity among those in the hospital is comparatively low. Two thoughts about interpretation:
1/ Omicron growing very fast. Patients hospitalized for COVID are typically (not always) well into their infection. In a fast-growing epidemic, the proportion infected 10d ago, say, is lower on any given day than in a slow-growing one. This alone could cause unusually lo ...
Aug 18, 2021 • 17 tweets • 18 min read
@CT_Bergstrom@jsm2334 Certainly this kind of bias merits consideration. I think the particular figure cited in that table is an example of Simpson's paradox, which is a special type of confounding.
@CT_Bergstrom@jsm2334 For those new to these terms, confounding is just the problem that (in this case) vaccine is not randomly distributed in the population, so the vaccinated have different risks from the unvaccinated for reasons other than their vaccine: in this case, age.
Aug 13, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
As often happens, the headline is too simple for the more subtle message of the article washingtonpost.com/outlook/corona…
The article's main point is unarguable: "we cannot control the delta variant by maximizing the immunity of only a segment of the population."
Jul 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
At the risk of boiling down too much and certainly losing some detail, one way to summarize this wonderful thread is that when we think about vaccine effectiveness, we should think of 4 key variables: 1 which vaccine, 2 age of the person, 3 how long after vax, 4 vs what outcome.
We've been using the simple view that the major vaccines in use in the US/Europe are possibly less effective against infection/symptoms when a variant is involved, but remain highly effective against severe outcomes. Published data so far support this view.
Now out with @rebeccajk13 Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S02…
funded in part by #SeroNet
In which we show that earlier work by Rinta-Kokko et al on interpreting prevalence measures for vaccine efficacy generalizes to the COVID-19 case pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19490983/ and that the odds ratio for PCR+ in vax vs unvax persons swabbed at random
May 25, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…. A key point: lab leak does not imply manipulation and manipulation does not imply ill intent.
I disagree with @SenTomCotton on many many things but this set of tweets quoted in the article lays it out correctly
This tweet got me thinking again about a topic that's been on my mind for the last several weeks and throughout the pandemic. In principle I fully agree with @flodebarre that people should evaluate arguments for logical soundness and consistency with facts, not who makes them.
But many people have asked me (most recently @AmyDMarcus) how thoughtful people should know whom to trust in getting information (science) and advice (for personal actions) and opinions (about policy) on a topic like COVID
May 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
In this clip @SenRandPaul FALSELY claims c-span.org/video/?c496233… that the @cambridgeWG has characterized work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology as gain-of-function.
I and many other @cambridgeWG support proper investigation of SARS-CoV-2 origins including the lab leak hypothesis and continue to oppose many forms of GOF research but it is just fabrication to say we have made any statement as a group about work in Wuhan.
May 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Really important @nytimes article on how easy access to vaccines remains a key issue not just hesitancy nytimes.com/2021/05/12/us/…. I’d add two points less explicit in article
1. People say that seeing others get vax without incident reduces their hesitancy. If so then each vaccine administered to those where access is the main problem can have a multiplier effect in overcoming hesitancy in others.
Apr 30, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Great that attention is remaining focused on #AMR a big problem. cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti… . But the relentless claims that this is primarily or largely a problem of agriculture are not evidence-based.
Some years ago @BillHanage and I and @G_RegevY and our students pointed out the absence of strong evidence (while acknowledging challenges of generating it) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ev…
Apr 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Is there some bizarre legal notion of causality at play here that the force used would have had to be such that it would have killed anyone, not just the actual person it did kill?
I'm willing to believe that the law traditionally has such a notion (or not -- hope some lawyers will help me understand) but if so it seems truly indefensible. We all have the preexisting condition of being mortal. We each have a different breakpoint for how much...
Mar 22, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
.@alisonannyoung has been one among the most active, persistent, and fair-minded reporters covering lab accidents in the US @USATODAY. This long piece makes the serious case for investigating poss lab origin for #SARSCoV2. usatoday.com/in-depth/opini….
This is not about conspiracy theories or China-bashing. This is about the basic principle, at least as old as Rev. Bayes and Sherlock Holmes, that when something unusual happens, you have to consider explanations that are also individually unlikely.
