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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
@ArmsControlWonk
Apr 2, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This is ... worse than the fake Trump letter at the end of The #2020Commission.
You be the judge. ImageImage
🧐 Image

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Dec 12
A bunch of tankie accounts are reposting this claim that Russia can produce 25 Oreshnik IRBMs a month.

That's probably wrong. 🧵
militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrain…
The claim of 25 missiles a month is falsely attributed to the @DI_Ukraine. What @DI_Ukraine says, according to other news outlets, is 25 IRBMs per YEAR, not per MONTH.
babel.ua/news/113282-ro…
Oreshnik is the first two stages of the Yars missile. Oreshnik production rates should be similar to Yars production rates, which the Russians claim is "about 20 launchers and their supporting systems per year."
web.archive.org/web/2021041112…
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 20
Russia has issued a new (2024) "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence" (основы Государственной Политики Российской Федерации В Области Ядерного Сдерживания). Same wine, new bottle. 🧵.
static.kremlin.ru/media/events/f…
BLUF/TLDR: Four significant changes from 2020 but these changes are all (1) at the margin, (2) consistent with past Soviet/Russian policy, and (3) stuff that I believed was the policy in fact, even if it had been unstated.
It's also exactly what Putin foreshadowed last month.
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Read 23 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 14
No, it probably can't. At least not anytime soon. A short 🧵.
1. The report was written by a think tank, not technical experts from the 🇺🇦 gov't.
2. 🇺🇦 has ~7 tons of reactor Pu, enough for several hundred simple-fission weapons.
3. The Pu is sitting in spent fuel. To use it, 🇺🇦 would have to build a separation plant, which would take years and cost hundreds of billions.
web.archive.org/web/2024111318…
First, some context. The document is just a report prepared by a think tank that will be presented at a conference. This very much stretches the definition of "news."👇 Image
Read 20 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Nov 8
This is a great idea! If North Korea tests the Hwasan-31 "tactical" nuclear warhead, this is what we'll see. A short 🧵.
According to Kim Yo Jong, the explosive power or "yield" of the Hwasan-31, pictured below, is the same as 900 tons of TNT -- that's much smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima (15,000 tons) or Nagasaki (21,000 tons). Image
Image
The first indication will be a statement from @USGS_Quakes. Some time after that, the @CTBTO will also issue a statement. Here is what those looked like for the last test. Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Oct 4
I am coming around to the idea that Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets. A little thread on cost effectiveness at the margins.
The US fired 12 interceptors during this engagement from the destroyers Bulkeley and Cole. Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total. (Each interceptor is about $30 million.) Image
Image
Arrow-2 and -3 production rates are classified, but Arrow-3 is more expensive than SM-3 at about $50 million per interceptor. You can see lots of Israeli officials talking about the need to reduce the cost of interceptors and increase production rates.
defensedaily.com/israeli-arrow-…
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Sep 13
I think the three big takeaways are:
1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant.
2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010.
3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
🧵
As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Here is the team's reasoning. North Korea released 5 images -- 4 inside the "big" hall and 1 inside the annex that @ColinZwirko first noticed under construction in March of this year.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Read 18 tweets

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