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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
Professor at @MIIS, staff at @JamesMartinCNS, host of the @ACWpodcast & member of @StateDept Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
11 subscribers
Nov 14 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
No, it probably can't. At least not anytime soon. A short 🧵. 1. The report was written by a think tank, not technical experts from the 🇺🇦 gov't.
2. 🇺🇦 has ~7 tons of reactor Pu, enough for several hundred simple-fission weapons.
3. The Pu is sitting in spent fuel. To use it, 🇺🇦 would have to build a separation plant, which would take years and cost hundreds of billions.
web.archive.org/web/2024111318…
Nov 8 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This is a great idea! If North Korea tests the Hwasan-31 "tactical" nuclear warhead, this is what we'll see. A short 🧵. According to Kim Yo Jong, the explosive power or "yield" of the Hwasan-31, pictured below, is the same as 900 tons of TNT -- that's much smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima (15,000 tons) or Nagasaki (21,000 tons). Image
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Oct 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I am coming around to the idea that Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets. A little thread on cost effectiveness at the margins. The US fired 12 interceptors during this engagement from the destroyers Bulkeley and Cole. Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total. (Each interceptor is about $30 million.) Image
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Sep 13 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
I think the three big takeaways are:
1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant.
2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010.
3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
🧵 As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
May 26 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Our friends at @planet have a really nice series of images of the "Typhon" missile launchers that the US has temporarily deployed in the Philippines. A couple of observations. Image The Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or "Typhon" (named after a Greek giant just to please @tomkarako) is a @USArmy missile system capable of launching the ~500 km-range SM-6 and the ~2000 km-range Tomahawk missiles. There is a nice CRS report on the system.
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…

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May 22 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Russia conducted an exercise in which it practiced starting a nuclear war. A short thread.
iz.ru/1699925/2024-0… We get to see a convoy of Iskander vehicles -- a very rare security vehicle, some transloaders, some containerized missiles (ballistic and cruise) and some support vehicles. Image
Apr 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
After the US transmogrified Qasem Soleimani into his final form as a a parade float, Iran conducted a big missile strike against a US airbase in Iraq. Miraculously, no one else died.Did a whole pod ep on it.

Some implications for this morning. Season 2, Episode 5: The Worst Case Scenario (Almost)
middlebury.edu/deal-podcast Iran was prepared for a significant escalatory response by the US -- so much so that a jumpy Tor SAM crew shot down a civilian airliner (PS752) taking off from Tehran International Airport, killing all 176 people on board.
cnn.com/2023/04/17/mid…
Apr 13 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
A quick summary on Iran's drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. Reminder, Iran is about 2000 km from Israel. Image “Drones” usually means the Shahed-family of loitering munitions, like the -131/136 models that Iran exports to Russia. They are long-range, but only carry about 20 kg of explosives. (Not that I would want 20 kg of explosive dropped on my office, mind you.)
dia.mil/Portals/110/Do…
Mar 3 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
This is some amazing reporting, but I am unpersuaded by the framing. Russia's nuclear doctrine as described sounds exactly what official documents say it is. A short thread.
ft.com/content/f18e6e… In 2020, Putin signed a decree titled “Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence.” @AnyaFink translated it for CNA at the time. So, we can compare the @FT story with it.
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD115…
Jan 5 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
The case for the Russian missile that struck Kharkiv on January 2 being a North Koran Hwasong-11 variant is a very, very strong. A short thread building on the work of the #OSINTatMIIS team, especially the amazing @DuitsmanMS.
politico.com/news/2024/01/0… A point of clarification. North Korea manufactures several variants of the Hwasong-11 including the Hwasong-11A (US designation: KN-23) and the Hwasong-11B (KN-24). We're still not sure which variant was used in the attack on Kharkiv. I made a chart to help you out.
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Nov 12, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Color me skeptical. A short thread. The use of "ban" implies some sort of legal agreement. Biden can't manifest treaties in meetings with foreign leaders. We're more likely to get something akin to the 1998 US-PRC nuclear non-targeting agreement -- nice, aspirational and useless.
clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/New/China/1…
Aug 21, 2023 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
Ok, we're on track to publish something on Ted Postol's analysis of North Korea's Hwasong-18 ICBM. But I wanted to do a short thread that illustrates just how incompetent Ted's analysis is.

I am aware of how this reads, but I’m not wrong. 😉 Ted says the Hwasong-18 is the Topol-M. So let’s start with some facts. The first stage of the Topol-M (RS-12M) is 1.86 m in diameter and 8.04 meters long. Russia had to declare this data under the START Treaty. Image
Jul 6, 2023 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
I don't understand what it means for an imaging satellite to have "no military utility." TBH, this feels like coping rather than rational analysis. A short thread.
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202307… The view attributed, but not sourced to, the US and ROK is that military utility is defined as being sub-meter resolution. This is very, very dumb thing to say. (This is so dumb that I can't believe this is an actual view of an actual human.)
May 17, 2023 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
Since I got dragged into this, a short 🧵. There are three separate issues here: (1) Do we take the Ukrainian claim to have downed 18 targets at face value, (2) is it likely and (3) does PAC-3 make a meaningful contribution to the defense of Ukraine? My answers: No, not likely, and still maybe.
Apr 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
No, it's not a surprise North Korea tested a solid-fuel ICBM. A short thread. Solid-fuel ICBMs are, as the name suggests, are loaded with propellant in a solid form. Solid-fuel missiles are much easier to handle than missiles that must be fueled with large quantities of toxic and explosive liquid rocket fuel and oxidizer. ImageImage
Mar 26, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
On Putin's comments about deploying Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus: He's right that Russia's actions have broad precedent in NATO nuclear sharing, but sharing nuclear warheads for Belarusian missiles goes beyond what NATO does now and is a precedent Putin may regret reviving. You can see Putin's full comments (in Russian) here. They occur in a sit down interview with a journalist.
smotrim.ru/video/2586445
Mar 13, 2023 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
One little aspect of the Iran-Saudi deal really struck me: Iran's continuing missile strikes against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia really seem to have exerted coercive leverage over Riyadh. That's probably not a great precedent. A reminder: Iran has been rocketing the sh*t out of KSA (nominally through proxies in Yemen) since ~2017. The more recent number I could find, from way back in December 2021, was "430 ballistic missiles and 851 drones ... killing 59 Saudi civilians."
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Feb 19, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Does North Korea have a stockpile of 70 kg of plutonium? Probably. A short thread. The new ROK Defense White Paper says that North Korea has about 70 kg of plutonium. Not everyone agrees with this estimate. I find it plausible, however.
mnd.go.kr/user/mnd/uploa…
Jan 31, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
This was the right decision. But a few comments about what the report does, and does not, say. The report contains two separate, though seemingly related, issues that resulted in noncompliance determinations. First, Russia has refused to permit inspections citing the ongoing pandemic. Second, Russia refused to schedule and attend a BCC meeting as required by the treaty.
Dec 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
OMG our office is in an @NHKWORLD_News documentary and the B-roll is spectacular. When @triciawh1te flips her hair like this, she means business. The look of awe on @madelineberzak's face speaks for all of us.
Dec 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Here's a fun one. I came across a declassified report referencing North Korea's first known facility to produce liquid propellants, near Manpo-up. Analysts judged the plant produced hydrogen peroxide. I downloaded a declassified KH-9 satellite image of the place toward the end of construction in 1974 -- although there is a cloud over part of the facility. Still, what a lovely image.