This paper by Guerrieri et al is impressively fast work, similar in spirit to what I've been thinking but going much further while also crossing the eyes and dotting the teas 1/ economics.mit.edu/files/19351 
My informal discussion here. We have a direct hit to "contact-intensive" sectors, and a second-round Keynesian demand-side hit to the rest of the economy 2/ nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opi…
They suggest that there may be lasting negative effects, even as the pandemic fades, because of balance-sheet damage; they suggest, going beyond where I was, that there may be adverse effects on the economy's potential 3/
One thing they don't mention, but I think is very serious, is the fiscal impact on state and local governments, which face balanced-budget requirements and will be forced into destructive austerity, delaying recovery, unless they get federal aid 4/
A self-indulgent note: Although our situation is horrible, intellectually I love the kind of thing they're doing: using the tools of economics to make sense of an unprecedented situation. 5/
And actually more than self-indulgence involved. People who rely on rote repetition of slogans based on different situations — like those still worried about disincentives for work — are completely lost now. In times like these, only the creative survive (intellectually) 6/
Werning has a very good thread explaining what's going on in their work 7/
