Thread by @N7IRL

What if Biden won?

I mean, a lot of the assumption that Biden is going to lose is based on leftists clinging to the notion that what caused Clinton to lose to Trump is that the Dems ran a centrist instead of backing Bernie...despite her lead in the popular vote and GOP cheating.

I know it's more convenient to the pro-Bernie narrative if Clinton lost because of how much everyone actually hates her, but the popular vote numbers kind of suggest that fuckery to capture the EC played the biggest role in Trump winning.

It's actually really fucking weird how any talk of Putin interfering STILL gets dismissed as desperate centrist conspiracy theories...by the same people convinced that Warren ran for the express purpose of ensuring Bernie loses to Biden.

When there's been actual evidence?

That voting machines were actually interfered with?

In states where the loss of those EC votes were enough to make a huge difference?

And this on top of the GOP's decades of active fucking with voting access?

So, the most likely thing this time around is that the GOP doubles down on what they've already done to restrict access to voting.

But that was going to be true no matter who got the Dem nomination.

Bernie getting the nom wouldn't actually be a guarantee of victory.

I've BEEN saying that ANY fucking Dem would beat Trump if there was actually a fair election.

And that like in 2016, we probably won't have one.

And that even if Bernie won the nomination he'd likely still end up losing the general FOR THAT REASON. Same as any Dem.

So any Dem victory depends on there somehow being enough voter engagement to get enough people voting in the general election to overcome the hurdles the GOP has thrown up to ANY Dem victory.

Which is tough for ANY Dem nominee.

But, what if we got leftists to stop being the first to make pro-Trump arguments every five fucking minutes because they're pissed that the Dems are the Dems?

What if leftists joined in actually loudly pointing out that however fucked up the Dems are, the GOP is murdering us all

Assuming we somehow manage to get anything approaching an actual fair election in which a majority of voters get to cast a vote, it's not a given that the majority of Dem-leaning voters are going to be so disgusted at Biden getting the nom they'll stay home instead.

Like, I need more Bernie-leaning types to actually grasp that, as shitty as it is that it's true, it's not a given that the accusations against Biden (WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE EARLY FUCKING FOCUS INSTEAD OF TROLLING WARREN SUPPORTERS) will actually torpedo him in the general.

The unfortunate reality is that BECAUSE those accusations didn't get a lot of focus early on we're now at the point where it's credibly looking like he gets the nom and bringing them up looks a lot like sour grapes.

If that sounds terrible, let me introduce you to Americans.

And a lot of the other arguments that Biden goes down in flames are fundamentally dependent on the assumption that just because people like Bernie's policy ideas, they're so clearly majority pro-Bernie they'll reject the centrist for being centrist.

Which is to say there's a portion of the left that needs to grasp that, while further left than electoral politics tends to show, most of the left/lib-leaning portion of the American public is still - WHEN ENGAGED IN ELECTORAL POLITICS - more moderate than we'd like them to be.

Biden may very well get the nomination and then lose, but it's not a given that it's going to be because he's somehow worse than Trump.

He's one of the worst of the Dems we could have picked, but that doesn't make him the least popular pick.

In general, I need a lot of leftists to just fucking quit with conflating popularity and effectiveness and influence.

Like the discussions re: Joe Rogan and Chapo and the manner in which how effective and/or influential they are depends on what people are trying to argue.

Someone can be POPULAR and yet not actually INFLUENCE a lot of the people who pay attention to them.

Someone can INFLUENCE a lot of people and yet not be EFFECTIVE at doing anything useful with that influence.

And someone can be not especially effective with what power they have but still be popular enough to get broad support, even if they're not the actually most qualified for the position they're seeking.

Biden doesn't have to be a good pick to be a popular one.

This isn't even an argument that Biden SHOULD get the nomination.

We still have a bunch of states left to primary. Who knows how the rest shakes out? Especially during this Covid shit?

And I'm not embracing that the left has to get behind Biden.

Bernie should absolutely stay in the running and should keep doing what he's been doing with trying to reassure people.

I'm not a fan of how relatively quickly the field narrowed and I think it'd be a mistake to embrace that Biden is the presumptive nominee.

But the left absolutely needs to grasp that how we see the Dem nominees is not inherently how potential Dem voters in general see them.

And it's not actually a given that Biden's record works against him for the average Dem voter.

Don't assume the average Dem voter sees the Iraq vote or the crime bill as fatal flaws.

They're fatal flaws TO THE LEFT.

But again, the notion that the DNC and the Dems must be actively rigging things because the voters clearly want socialist policies...

...did y'all already forget that support for the ACA vastly outstripped support for Obamacare, even though it's the same fucking thing?

Because people can support the policies but change their minds on getting them when it's associated with the individuals?

I can't countenance any serious argument that tries to pretend that ANY single Dem is worse than Trump.

There's no one worse than Trump, except maybe if one of his failsons ran.

And Dem voters don't necessarily see the Dem field the way leftist, Bernie-supporting voters do.

If Trump gets reelected it's not going to be simply because the Dems should have seen that the candidate who flat out skipped campaigning in multiple states (remember when that was an argument for why Clinton lost?) should have been the presumptive candidate right out the gate.

If Trump gets reelected it will be to a far greater extent because the GOP has spent multiple decades actively breaking the electoral system to serve their own power.

Because conservatives never cared about democracy, they care about having and using power.

It will be because we saw an end to the laws that demanded the states most responsible for disenfranchising non-white voters be held accountable.

Because we saw the smashing of any realistic limits on political spending with zero accountability.

Because the courts are now packed, and looking to be more so, with the most unqualified shiteaters whose primary purpose is to rubber-stamp whatever right-wing billionaires want.

Because of the continued enshrining of gerrymandering and voter suppression.

If you can't grasp that Trump only won because the GOP has worked so damn hard to make sure that the process of electing a president is as unrepresentative of the will of the actual majority as it can be, you shouldn't be doing political analysis.

It's been kind of wild, honestly, watching how people can point at voter suppression efforts against young voters to justify lower numbers for Bernie...

,,,and then they turn around and blame the Dems, who don't control state primaries.

I think the Dems and the DNC can and MUST fight harder to push states to postpone and figure out pandemic-safe options for voting and their failure to push harder so far is shameful.

But it's not THEIR decision whether primaries move forward in each state.

And so much of what's fucked up about voting access is DIRECTLY the result of efforts by the GOP and the RNC.

There is one party in this country devoted to the notion that fewer people should be allowed to vote.

Again, ANY Dem getting the nomination has to face that there are actual decades of right-wing efforts to restrict voting to only those who support the GOP.

Which means it's that much more effort to get people engaged with the process AND to get them to the polls.

And while the left argument against Biden is that he's not promising anything exciting to get people interested...

...My caution is to maybe not assume that "things will be boring again" is actually unappealing to the majority of people who'd consider voting Dem.

That is, if you're going to analyze how people are likely to vote and judge who's likely to win, maybe spend less time assuming that just because people's policy preferences lean further left, that means their electoral preferences lean further left.

And maybe stop being the first people to insist that there's no way that Biden CAN win and engage more with the notion that the nomination isn't even decided yet and it's entirely possible to spend less time yelling at people for not supporting the right guy and MAKE THE CASE.

I don't want Biden to get the nomination.

Of course, I also want Trump to not even make it to the election before finally being led out of the White House in handcuffs, but I'll take what I can get.

If Biden does get the nom? 4 years of mediocrity is better than...this.