Thread by @kurteichenwald

Since @larry_kudlow is too stupid to look up basic info about pandemics/epidemics - & thus says "nobody could have predicted" COVID-19 would have an exponential rise - thus *proving* Trump Admin is not consulting even mildly qualified experts, let's explain to him.../1

...the exponential rise, @larry_kudlow was proven to be coming on Jan 23 (day after Trump said "we have it totally under control” and the day before he said "“It will all work out well.”)

The key to knowing it is from calculating Basic reproduction number of a virus..../2

...(notice how the word "basic" is there? Remember that, because this is a BASIC infectious disease issue.)

The reproduction number is cited as r0. It is the average number of people who will be infected by one person with the disease. This is simple math: If r0 is 1 or less../3

...then the virus will not be exponential in growth. Why? If Bob has it, and infects 2 people, who infect 2 people - the growth has gone from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8, or exponential growth. The r0 *immediately* tells you if it will be exponential or not....

...if the r0 is greater than one, epidemic that can spin out of control without proper management. If it is one or less, it will be very difficult for it to spin out of control, and very easy to end. THIS is why the first frigging study by WHO was to figure out the r0. And.../5

...came on January 23: WHO concluded based on what they were seeing that the r0 was between 1.4 and 2.5, which is huge. At that millisecond, every expert and even every amateur who has ever read anything about epidemics KNEW it would have exponential growth, @larry_kudlow .../6

...as you bleated "contained" & Trump vomited "no problem, no problem," more detailed studies were completed on the virus that causes COVID-19. And they gave horrific results: r0 between 3.6 and 4.0. That meant everyone with COVID would, without isolation, infect on average.../7

...between 3 & 4 people. So Joe won't do self-isolation, he is wandering around infected for 2 weeks but doesn't know, he infects 3 people, one of whom infects 5, another infects 2, & the third infects 3. So gone from 1 infected to 3 to 9. EVERYONE with basic knowledge knew.../8

...this. EVERYONE was warning after 1/23 that would rise exponentially. You know why you say "nobody knew," @larry_kudlow? Because you are too stupid to know those words prove you were consulting NO experts. Hell, it proves you werent consulting a 1st year med student.../9

...just like when everyone raged at you when you said the "It's contained" BS, that is not how pandemics/epidemics work. But you people didn't give a DAMN how many people died @larry_kudlow. You all, in your incompetence, just patted each other on the back.../10

...proclaiming your expertise, smiling & laughing at the experts who were ringing the warning bells. Instead, you ignored them in favor of Peter "I have a Phd in social sciences so I'm an epidemiologist" Navarro and #DimwitDon.

You KILLED Americans, you bastard! All of you../11

..idiots are too ignorant to know youre ignorant, soothe yourself by proclaiming your expertise about a subject so basic you could practically learn it from Wikipedia.

I hope theres a hell, @larry_kudlow because you & your buddies will burn there for killing so many people.
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