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1/ Frustrated with scenario analysing your business to death?
2/ Well there's a simple reason for that. You can't forecast the unforecastable. You need simple hacks to make simple decisions.
3/ Just work bottom up on your resources and ask the question - how lean can I go without breaking the machine?
4/ Experience will tell you -- make deep and hard cuts once and early.

I promise you, if you do 2-3 cuts on the coming 6 months you will completely destroy everyone's confidence.

Rebuild your team and operations as you regain confidence.

I know it sucks.
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Fred Destin
@fdestin
1/ People who are optimists may fare the worst in this crisis if it lasts longer than anyone expects (which is possible or even probable).

I was reminded today of the Stockdale paradox and it probably applies here. Let me expand.

jimcollins.com/media_topics/T…
2/ "Admiral Jim Stockdale was the highest-ranking military officer in the Hanoi Hilton. He was there for seven years, from 1968 to 1974. He was tortured over twenty times. And by his own account, Stockdale came out of the prison camp even stronger than he went in."
3/ "His systemic constraints were so severe, and there was never going to be any end to it. His captors could come in any day and torture him. He had no sense of whether, or if, he would ever get out of the prison camp."
Read 8 tweets
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Fred Destin
@fdestin
1/ Welcome back to the age of the startup death spiral
2/
Sub 12 months runway and no financing -->

Hunker down, cut costs incredibly hard, run hyper lean -->

Lose your ability to generate any growth & develop product.
3/ The End.

There is a fine line between conserving cash and entering the death spiral. Tough to navigate. Don't stop selling.
Read 4 tweets
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Fred Destin
@fdestin
1/ A little thread on how one venture capitalist thinks about the pandemic from a fund standpoint
2/ First of all stating the obvious -- this is first and foremost a global scale humanitarian crisis right now. It's staring us in the face but from (most of ) VC Twitter you wouldn't know it.
3/ My job is to manage a fund. As such my first take is to form a view on the depth of the crisis. The difficulty is that no one can model this thing. Any forecast we make is more likely to reflect our own appetite for risk and view of the future than anything else.
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