1/7 @brithume It makes no sense to credit distancing for the better numbers because the models needed to account for it! I can forgive if “models” from 4-6 weeks ago (when there was less US data) were way off and off regarding things 4-6 weeks away, but this isn’t the case.
.@brithume The fact is, two weeks ago Monday, NY was expecting needing 30,000 ICU beds by this week. I showed at the time that it makes no sense. IHME’s models showed Thursday 3/26, that a week later NY will need 10,900 ICUs at a time when the total ICU count was a few thousand,
3/ and was going up by only 340 a day. IHME was essentially expecting the ICU count to pop one day to the next from an average of 340 into a daily average of 1,300. I tweeted at the time that it’s wrong. When 4/2 came around and NY was under 3,800, IHME simply pushed back
4/ the peak to this week Thursday and showed that there will be a need of 12,000 ICU beds despite having another week of ICUs growing by a fraction of what would be needed to actually pop from 3,700 to almost 12,000 in a week! This was the daily ICU rise in NY recently:
172 Fri 3/27/20
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Mon
303
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun 4/5/20
Despite this, IHME’s kept to its 11K - 12K projection, first for 4/2 and then for 4/9. No, not 5 weeks ago. Days away!
cc @brithume
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Mon
303
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun 4/5/20
Despite this, IHME’s kept to its 11K - 12K projection, first for 4/2 and then for 4/9. No, not 5 weeks ago. Days away!
cc @brithume
5/7 As late as this week Sunday April 5th midday, IHME still projected NY will need almost 12,000 ICU beds despite the fact that that total ICU count in recent days was:
2,352 Sun 3/29/20
2,719 Mon
3,022 Tuesday
3,396 Wed 4/1/20
3,731 Thurs
4,126 Fri
4,376 Sat
2,352 Sun 3/29/20
2,719 Mon
3,022 Tuesday
3,396 Wed 4/1/20
3,731 Thurs
4,126 Fri
4,376 Sat
6/7 Finally yesterday they cut it to NY needing 6,664 ICUs in a few days. Defenders of the models say “well, it takes time to update.” No! Not when the US is locked down due to you and not when NY, the state used by IHME to shape nationwide models, releases info daily!
7/7 If my calculator and Twitter account were able to show you weeks ago that you are way off, then you failed to update your own models. Models are not “scientific.” They are based on back-end data and assumption that humans enter or fail to enter. They failed! cc @brithume
My thread two weeks ago when NY expected needing 30,000 ICUs by this week:
Another thread from last week which addresses IHME later in the week
Another thread from last week which addresses IHME later in the week
Addendum: Monday 4/6/20 (yesterday!), IHME expected NY to need 6,664 ICU beds by tomorrow. This at a time when the last known count was Sunday’s 4,504 and the recent daily ICU change was
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
HOW do they expect an added 2,160 in 3 days? (720 new per day)
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
HOW do they expect an added 2,160 in 3 days? (720 new per day)
NY had yesterday 4,583 ICUs occupied for Coronavirus. IHME - whose NY model helps shape the US model & policy - expects NY to need 6,664 ICUs by tomorrow. A jump of 1,040 per day!
Recent daily ICU change was:
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
79 Mon 4/5/20
Recent daily ICU change was:
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
79 Mon 4/5/20
BTW, please read this thread explaining why so many people are dying at NY area hospitals. Thank you all.
Two days ago Monday, NY had 4,583 Coronavirus patients in the ICU.
IHME expects TODAY that NY will need TODAY 5,891 ICUs; which would be a jump of 654 today and 654 yesterday despite recent ICU changed being:
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
79 Mon 4/5/20
THEY ARE OFF SAME DAY!
IHME expects TODAY that NY will need TODAY 5,891 ICUs; which would be a jump of 654 today and 654 yesterday despite recent ICU changed being:
395 Fri
250 Sat
128 Sun
79 Mon 4/5/20
THEY ARE OFF SAME DAY!
Lockdown policies won’t be adjusted until gov officials and media fogures will ask questions about IHME. Cuomo said 4/12 that NY had 5,009 in the ICU as of 4/11. Still, IHME’s model (which shapes the nationwide model and policy), has NOW 4/8 as needing 5,945 ICU beds. Hello?
Again: IHME projected Thursday 3/26 that NY’s ICU count will jump from 1,583 at the time to about 10,900 by the following Thursday. Would have been a daily jump of 1,328 but the average daily rise those 7 days turned out to be a few hundred to land at 3,732 ICUs Thurs April 2nd.
Did @IHME_UW back off? Nooo. They simply pushed back the peak by another week and projected NY’s apex to need almost 12,000 ICUs. This would have been a daily change of 1,100+ despite having now another week of a daily ICU change of 300+.
Don’t tell me they were so of a week out
Don’t tell me they were so of a week out
because “distancing worked better than expected” when IHME ignored NY data for two weeks! Anyway, through Sunday April 5th, IHME held steady at its almost-12,000 projection for a mere few days away despite having 3 more days of ICU rising by less than B4! @yashar @NateSilver538
The attached data is NY’s ICU daily changes of late March/early April based on Cuomo’s pressers. As this data was released, IHME’s “model” for NY projected the total ICU count to jump by 1,100-1,300 a day. Not in a month from now. No. The same days as this 👇🏼was happening!
