Or maybe not just yet...#eurogroup teleconference to resume ~2340 after over three hours of bilateral talks. If by some miracle ๐ฎ๐น and ๐ณ๐ฑ agree compromise on the trickiest stuff (ESM, recovery fund) then we have a deal for 10am. If not - more likely - then its back to #euco ๐
Update: #eurogroup resumes with a new compromise text supported by France and Germany. But Italy and the Netherlands still at loggerheads. Rome demanding reference to coronabonds and no conditionality on ESM loans. The Dutch insisting on "phased" conditionality
On the other points, finance ministers agree to use โฌ200bn in loan guarantees from the EIB. And details of a "recovery fund" (French fund or Spain's SPV) will be left for EU27 leaders to sort out
Yes the #Eurogroup is still in session. 1.30am and ministers are on another drafting break. Italy still demanding explicit mention of coronabonds rather than "innovative financial instruments" ...
Still no sign of a new #Eurogroup draft What's the Zoom etiquette for switching off the vid and having a snooze when the chat is dead ?
Just under three hours until a scheduled #Eurogroup presser. Meeting continued throughout the night with no breakthrough between ๐ฎ๐น and ๐ณ๐ฑ. As of now...still in a drafting break
#eurogroup expected to resume Thursday after ministers fail to agree common text after over 13 hours
The 10am presser has also been cancelled #eurogroup
Scholz urges countries not to "refuse a compromise". He's talking to ๐ณ๐ฑand ๐ฎ๐น after French, Germans, Spanish said they could live with draft compromise that emerged somewhere around 1am last night
For the next 18-24 hours, Gualtieri and Hoekstra will be claim they fought to the bitter end for their national interest. That will be either v helpful or unhelpful for the chances of a Maundy Thursday compromise #Eurogroup
Hoekstra: it is too early to agree a comprehensive package
It's that time of the year I guess but some distinctly northern eurozone diplomats think ESM conditionality is the "cross the Dutch will die on"
Worth noting that Hoekstra went into #Eurogroup after hearing complaints from Dutch MPs about Hungary getting extra cash from EU for coronavirus while openly flouting values. Italy and fiscal response is not the same but room for generosity over ESM conditionality vanishing in ๐ณ๐ฑ
๐ฅ Bruno Le Maire: "As we are counting deaths by hundreds and thousands, finance ministers are playing with words and adjectives. We should have a common understanding of the gravity of the crisis...ย We will be judged severely first by the markets, then by our populations"
โข โข โข
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NEW: Andrew Bailey and Kwasi Kwarteng attended a meeting of the G7 counterparts in Washington this afternoon, where their counterparts, led by Janet Yellen, made a number of "backhanded" swipes at events in the UK
Finance ministers, led by Yellen, warned against governments carrying out unfunded tax cuts and policies that threatened financial stability. Canada's finance minister Freedland also chipped in
The warnings were not explicitly aimed at the UK but they were clearly directed at the Brits. One diplomat said that Kwarteng and Bailey did not respond, sticking squarely to their pre-prepared scripts
Bailey admits that the Bank's emergency liquidity interventions mean that its monetary policy goals and its financial stability mandate are now running in opposite directions. This is in contrast to the last dash for cash in March 2020, when QE achieved both goals.
โผ๏ธโผ๏ธ BoE Bailey sends clear warning that BoE interventions will end on Friday. He tells funds: "You've got three days left to get this done".
Bailey's categorical warning that bond-buying will end this Friday will raise more questions about whether the Bank can still proceed with its QT programme, which is due to start on the same day as the chancellor's fiscal update, October 31
IMF has downgraded its 2023 global growth forecasts today (from slowest onwards, non exhaustive list):
๐ท๐บ -2.3%
๐ฉ๐ช -0.3%
๐ฎ๐น -0.2%
๐ธ๐ช -0.1%
๐ฌ๐ง 0.3%
๐ง๐ช 0.4%
๐ซ๐ท 0.7%
๐ณ๐ฑ 0.8%
๐บ๐ธ 1.0%
๐ง๐ท 1.0%
๐จ๐ฆ 1.5%
๐ฏ๐ต 1.6%
๐จ๐ณ 4.4%
๐ฎ๐ณ 6.1%
The ๐ฌ๐ง is due to suffer the worst average inflation rate of the advanced economies (9% in 2022, 9.1% in 2023). But the IMF forecast for a "significant slowdown" in growth does not factor in policies announced in the mini-budget on Sept 23
On the ๐ฌ๐งmini-budget, the IMF says the "sizeable" fiscal package "is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation."
Happy new year from Planet Brussels where this has just landed in some people's inboxes ๐ #taxonomy
A 60-page draft #taxonomy text landed in inboxes of member states minutes before 2022 struck. A "consultation" process - which does not involve MEPs - will run until mid Jan. Some highlights on what's included ๐
Commission stresses that on nuclear energy and fossil gas there are "rapid technological" developments occuring.
On โข๏ธ, draft paves the way for awarding the green label as long as MS can provide plans for safe waste management and a 100g per KW of CO2 is not exceeded
German Greens have won the right to propose the country's next EU commissioner. There has been an expectation that VDL would serve two terms. It's a canny move which will mean VDL will feel obliged to keep Greens on side for next 2.5 years.
Pilling pressure on VDL already, vice chair of Greens speculates how "cool" it would be to have a Green European Commission President
One suggestion is that VDL could secure Greens support if she agrees to stand on a transnational list at next EU elections. Thus far, debate over pan-EU lists has been killed by VDL's centre right EPP party
France's finance minister has arrived at the #Eurogroup fuming at the state of EU energy market rules calling them "unfit for purpose" after energy price rises have "become unbearable for our citizens and businesses"
Le Maire will be teaming up with Spain's Nadia Calvino today to demand Brussels reform EU energy market rules to better regulate gas stocks and scrap a marginal pricing system so price of electricity production in each MS reflects costs for consumers ft.com/content/463d0eโฆ
Commission's initial response - a flexibilities paper laying out what gov's can do - is unlikely to satiate French or Spanish asks. Worsening prices over winter risks poisoning Europe's fiscal and climate policy debate ft.com/content/5805c3โฆ