Mehreen Khan Profile picture
Apr 7, 2020 โ€ข 16 tweets โ€ข 6 min read โ€ข Read on X
Or maybe not just yet...#eurogroup teleconference to resume ~2340 after over three hours of bilateral talks. If by some miracle ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น and ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ agree compromise on the trickiest stuff (ESM, recovery fund) then we have a deal for 10am. If not - more likely - then its back to #euco ๐Ÿ“
Update: #eurogroup resumes with a new compromise text supported by France and Germany. But Italy and the Netherlands still at loggerheads. Rome demanding reference to coronabonds and no conditionality on ESM loans. The Dutch insisting on "phased" conditionality
On the other points, finance ministers agree to use โ‚ฌ200bn in loan guarantees from the EIB. And details of a "recovery fund" (French fund or Spain's SPV) will be left for EU27 leaders to sort out
Yes the #Eurogroup is still in session. 1.30am and ministers are on another drafting break. Italy still demanding explicit mention of coronabonds rather than "innovative financial instruments" ...
Still no sign of a new #Eurogroup draft What's the Zoom etiquette for switching off the vid and having a snooze when the chat is dead ?
Just under three hours until a scheduled #Eurogroup presser. Meeting continued throughout the night with no breakthrough between ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น and ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ. As of now...still in a drafting break
#eurogroup expected to resume Thursday after ministers fail to agree common text after over 13 hours
The 10am presser has also been cancelled #eurogroup
Our take on a very long night over Zoom in this morning's @ftbrussels briefing ft.com/content/da1411โ€ฆ Image
Scholz urges countries not to "refuse a compromise". He's talking to ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑand ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น after French, Germans, Spanish said they could live with draft compromise that emerged somewhere around 1am last night
For the next 18-24 hours, Gualtieri and Hoekstra will be claim they fought to the bitter end for their national interest. That will be either v helpful or unhelpful for the chances of a Maundy Thursday compromise #Eurogroup
Hoekstra: it is too early to agree a comprehensive package
It's that time of the year I guess but some distinctly northern eurozone diplomats think ESM conditionality is the "cross the Dutch will die on"
Worth noting that Hoekstra went into #Eurogroup after hearing complaints from Dutch MPs about Hungary getting extra cash from EU for coronavirus while openly flouting values. Italy and fiscal response is not the same but room for generosity over ESM conditionality vanishing in ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
๐Ÿ”ฅ Bruno Le Maire: "As we are counting deaths by hundreds and thousands, finance ministers are playing with words and adjectives. We should have a common understanding of the gravity of the crisis...ย We will be judged severely first by the markets, then by our populations"

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More from @MehreenKhn

Oct 12, 2022
NEW: Andrew Bailey and Kwasi Kwarteng attended a meeting of the G7 counterparts in Washington this afternoon, where their counterparts, led by Janet Yellen, made a number of "backhanded" swipes at events in the UK
Finance ministers, led by Yellen, warned against governments carrying out unfunded tax cuts and policies that threatened financial stability. Canada's finance minister Freedland also chipped in
The warnings were not explicitly aimed at the UK but they were clearly directed at the Brits. One diplomat said that Kwarteng and Bailey did not respond, sticking squarely to their pre-prepared scripts
Read 6 tweets
Oct 11, 2022
Bailey admits that the Bank's emergency liquidity interventions mean that its monetary policy goals and its financial stability mandate are now running in opposite directions. This is in contrast to the last dash for cash in March 2020, when QE achieved both goals. Image
โ€ผ๏ธโ€ผ๏ธ BoE Bailey sends clear warning that BoE interventions will end on Friday. He tells funds: "You've got three days left to get this done".
Bailey's categorical warning that bond-buying will end this Friday will raise more questions about whether the Bank can still proceed with its QT programme, which is due to start on the same day as the chancellor's fiscal update, October 31
Read 5 tweets
Oct 11, 2022
IMF has downgraded its 2023 global growth forecasts today (from slowest onwards, non exhaustive list):
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ -2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช -0.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น -0.2%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช -0.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 0.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช 0.4%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท 0.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ 0.8%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท 1.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต 1.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ 4.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ 6.1%
The ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง is due to suffer the worst average inflation rate of the advanced economies (9% in 2022, 9.1% in 2023). But the IMF forecast for a "significant slowdown" in growth does not factor in policies announced in the mini-budget on Sept 23
On the ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งmini-budget, the IMF says the "sizeable" fiscal package "is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation."
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
Happy new year from Planet Brussels where this has just landed in some people's inboxes ๐ŸŽ #taxonomy
A 60-page draft #taxonomy text landed in inboxes of member states minutes before 2022 struck. A "consultation" process - which does not involve MEPs - will run until mid Jan. Some highlights on what's included ๐Ÿ‘‡
Commission stresses that on nuclear energy and fossil gas there are "rapid technological" developments occuring.
On โ˜ข๏ธ, draft paves the way for awarding the green label as long as MS can provide plans for safe waste management and a 100g per KW of CO2 is not exceeded
Read 11 tweets
Nov 24, 2021
German Greens have won the right to propose the country's next EU commissioner. There has been an expectation that VDL would serve two terms. It's a canny move which will mean VDL will feel obliged to keep Greens on side for next 2.5 years.
Pilling pressure on VDL already, vice chair of Greens speculates how "cool" it would be to have a Green European Commission President
One suggestion is that VDL could secure Greens support if she agrees to stand on a transnational list at next EU elections. Thus far, debate over pan-EU lists has been killed by VDL's centre right EPP party
Read 6 tweets
Oct 4, 2021
France's finance minister has arrived at the #Eurogroup fuming at the state of EU energy market rules calling them "unfit for purpose" after energy price rises have "become unbearable for our citizens and businesses"
Le Maire will be teaming up with Spain's Nadia Calvino today to demand Brussels reform EU energy market rules to better regulate gas stocks and scrap a marginal pricing system so price of electricity production in each MS reflects costs for consumers ft.com/content/463d0eโ€ฆ
Commission's initial response - a flexibilities paper laying out what gov's can do - is unlikely to satiate French or Spanish asks. Worsening prices over winter risks poisoning Europe's fiscal and climate policy debate ft.com/content/5805c3โ€ฆ
Read 10 tweets

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