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How do we get out of lockdown? There are three potential strategies, @GrahamLawton reports... newscienti.st/3bWuiwQ
@GrahamLawton 1. Hold: Maintain the lockdown until the rate of new infections falls close to zero, then pivot to an aggressive containment strategy, with isolation of new cases and contact tracing.
2. Build: Lock down for long enough to build healthcare capacity for the second wave. That means increasing intensive care beds and staff, but working out how much we need is difficult.
3. Shield: End the lockdown abruptly while extensively protecting those who are likely to be most vulnerable to the virus.
Choosing between these three strategies depends on a few unknowns, particularly how quickly a population crosses the threshold into herd immunity. Models can help, but they are only as good as the data and assumptions they are based on.
All three strategies may have to be abandoned or temporarily suspended if second waves get out of hand, which could mean a repeat cycle of lockdown, relaxation, lockdown. newscientist.com/article/mg2463…
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