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Our mistake is basing policy on what a gov’t (any gov’t) tells us is their macro experience with CV-19.

Should base policy on micro truth: virus is 2-3x more contagious, 10-20x more deadly than flu virus. All policy can be derived from that! wsj.com/articles/china…
A market is not a clockwork machine, best modeled from above.

No, a market is a bonfire, best simulated from below.

So is a pandemic.

From Dec. ‘18. Will update for today.

epsilontheory.com/were-doing-it-…
For more on the power of micro-level simulation and the weakness of macro-level modeling ...

epsilontheory.com/a-song-of-ice-…
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