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Ben Hunt Profile picture
Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.
51 subscribers
May 29 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This is a common knowledge moment - everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controlled over the remainder of Trump's term - and it puts us on a path to a sovereign debt crisis.

"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Deficit"

New on ET! Image No one believes this administration has any ability (or desire) to control explosive growth in the federal deficit.

No one is pretending otherwise any longer, not the White House, not Elon, not Bessent, not House Republicans, not the media MAGA crew.
epsilontheory.com/how-i-learned-…
May 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
It's not the tariffs. It's not the recession. It's not the tax cuts. These are just the catalysts, the vehicles through which the true enemy shows himself.

"Our True Enemy Has Yet to Reveal Himself"

New on ET! 🧵 Image I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that our true enemy has not yet revealed himself.

epsilontheory.com/our-true-enemy…
Apr 21 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
We're in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.

New on ET! 🧵 Image Do unto others as they would do unto you.
But do it first.

That's Wall Street's Not-So-Golden Rule, and if you want to be successful in the business of Money, it's the one rule you must obey.

epsilontheory.com/wall-streets-n…
Apr 7 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
I promised a long-form note on why the tariffs are madness, yes, but even more so why replacing the Pax Americana regime with an America First regime is such a terrible deal for ALL Americans.

So here you go! No paywall on this one.

"Crashing the Car of Pax Americana" 🧵 Image Pax Americana is the dominance of the USD as the world’s reserve currency and the US military as the world’s security arbiter.

Pax Americana is most of all the American stories that have dominated the hearts and minds of everyone on Earth for 50+ years.
epsilontheory.com/crashing-the-c…
Feb 18 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The Road to Serfdom is not an endless road, but its path and duration, what I call the Great Ravine, is not up to us to choose. While we walk this road the only thing we can save is our souls, and we do it with one simple sentence: It was never going to be me.
🧵 Image Trumpism is an ideological embrace of America as a Great Power, that this is everything America should be, and an ideological rejection of America as a Good Power, that this is something America should never be.

epsilontheory.com/it-was-never-g…
Feb 25, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
How does gov’t policy create inflation?

Eversource (ES), the publicly-traded company with a monopoly over most of Connecticut’s electricity supply, is raising its rates by 19% on May 1.

Reason? To recoup losses on required purchase of carbon-free power.

But there’s a twist! CT requires Eversource to buy electricity from Millstone, the state’s last nuclear power plant, at a fixed price.

Eversource sells this electricity back to the grid.

When nat gas prices are high, like after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the company makes a profit on this.
Feb 10, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This widespread idea that MSM coverage of Ukraine is dominated by pro-Ukraine propaganda-ish ‘reporting’ is wrong.

And we can prove it with our Fiat News monitors.

epsilontheory.com/useful-idiots/

Image This is the absolute level of MSM usage of propaganda-ish terms and rhetorical constructions. High since the invasion, and remains elevated (which is unusual).

But it’s not dominated by pro-Ukraine content. Image
Dec 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
BTW, the NBER paper that Stancil and his Renfields love to cite clearly shows that real wages are lower today than they were pre-pandemic. For women it's the same and for men it's lower.

The economic discontent isn't just vibes. It's lower real wages.
nber.org/system/files/w…

Image To 'rescue' the vibecession narrative and avoid the unthinkable (that real wages increased under Trump and fell under Biden), a new graphic was created from the NBER dataset that appears nowhere in the original. We are told that we have 'returned to trend' in real wage growth. Image
Jun 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
You think I’m not angry? I am beyond angry … AT THE VIRUS.

The *virus* killed two of my best friends along with ONE MILLION other Americans.

The *virus* inflicted 2+ years of brutal, life-diminishing decisions on every American family - yours and mine alike. Image AND our institutions - all of them! - utterly failed to protect American citizens.

Trump was a disaster. Biden is bad. The FDA and CDC were incompetent and politically captured. MSM and Congress were a joke. The worst of all was Fauci.

epsilontheory.com/first-the-peop…
Jun 18, 2023 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
The replies. ImageImageImage The replies. ImageImage
Apr 1, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I can’t remember the last time I found something quirky and cool on Twitter, something that made me laugh or gave me a sense of wonder. Instead I find that I’ve been molded into a rage engagement machine, triggered by norepinephrine into a reflexively combative stance against a literally constant and literally promoted stream of media Renfields.
Mar 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Here’s the recipe that Renfields use in service to the strategic efforts by China, Russia and billionaire accelerationists to destabilize the US in narrative-space.

1: Start your thread with an anti-US premise like “losing its reserve currency status” or “ditching the dollar”. ImageImage 2: follow-up with 10th grade-level observations. ImageImage
Feb 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
I’ve written a couple of notes about medieval wolf traps (no, seriously), but now I need to write about these 16th c stag hunts, where they’d drive the animals into the river for the “hunters” to shoot them with crossbows.

(my first visit to Vienna Kunst Historisches museum!) Me when Elon carpet bombs Twitter with dick jokes.
Jan 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
For my Sunday PSA, people should know that The Banshees of Inishiren is a 'dark comedy' in exactly the same way that pancreatic cancer is comedic. The last half hour is Event Horizon set in 1920s Ireland. OMG this was horrible. An audience-abusive script.
Jan 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"The discovery occurred in November, days before the midterm elections, but Biden’s team kept the matter under wraps and didn’t publicly acknowledge anything until it came out in the press."

Full Cooperation™️
cnn.com/2023/01/12/pol… "A person familiar with the situation said in the case of the classified documents initially discovered at the Penn-Biden Center, Biden lawyers first notified the National Archives – not the Justice Department."

This is CNN's reporting.
cnn.com/2023/01/12/pol…
Jan 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BlockFi made a bankruptcy court filing today. Let's dig in a bit, shall we?

restructuring.ra.kroll.com/blockfi/Home-D…

Wheeeee! CEO Zac Prince cashed out ~$9.3 million from his BlockFi account (about 70%) in early April, 2022.

He cashed out another ~$850k in mid-August, 2022, after the FTX "bailout".

And yes, I'm accounting for market declines. Image
Dec 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
2022 was our ninth year of publishing Epsilon Theory. It was also our best.

Thread #5 to show you what I mean.

We’re changing the way the world sees the water in which we swim – narratives.
epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory… At the core of our research is a new science of narrative structure, built on a foundation of linguistics and biology.

These are the notes we published in 2022 that define us.

Start here, with 'An Inconvenient Truth'.
epsilontheory.com/an-inconvenien…
Dec 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
2022 was our ninth year of publishing Epsilon Theory. It was also our best.

Thread #3 to show you what I mean.

We were early and we were right about the collapse of the crypto trading world.
epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory… We called out the corrupt and fatuous crypto ‘revolution’ back in May, highlighting Sam Bankman-Fried’s central role.
epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-…
Dec 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
2022 was our ninth year of publishing Epsilon Theory. It was also our best.

Thread #1 to show you what I mean.

We were early and we were right about the embeddedness of inflation and the inability of central banks to control it.

epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory… Inflation is embedded and non-transitory here in the pandemic bubble, and central banks don’t have the tools to put the genie back into its bottle.
epsilontheory.com/ngmi/
Dec 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It's so weird that the macroeconomic environment has impacted Tesla (-41%) and not Ford (+1%) or GM (+8%) over the past six months.

It's almost as if something else happened in mid-October. Image I mean, if you think that Tesla is down 8% today because of "The Fed" or because it's a "growth stock", then you're the sucker at the table.
Dec 12, 2022 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
My Fintwit friend @unusual_whales invited me to participate in a Twitter Spaces panel interview of Sam Bankman-Fried today at 10a. I appreciate the invite, I think he is approaching this with clear eyes and a full heart, and I will listen with great interest! I’m passing on the invite, though, because I believe strongly that Bankman-Fried should be questioned a) by professionals, b) under oath, and c) in a venue that allows for evidence to be presented, other witnesses to be called, and his testimony to be impeached.