Thread by @iandonald_psych

1. Some realism on how long the current #coronavirus restrictions in the UK will be maintained would be helpful. There is surprise in some reports that they might not be relaxed after the 3 week review next week. They will not. They won't be after the next 3 week review either.

2. Let's consider some logic (which could be wrong). The numbers of infections and fatalities will reach a high level - a peak is misleading. Once it reaches that level numbers won't suddenly fall again. The peak will become a plateau. It might then, after time, gradually fall

3. It will fall slower than it increased, but let's pretend the rate of reduction is as fast as the increase was. Let's assume that it's another week before the maximum infections or fatalities reach the peak, and also assume another week for the numbers to start to fall.

4. That would be 5 weeks since the restrictions started. Therefore it would be five weeks before we are back to the point at which the restrictions were put in place. Obviously they can't be relaxed at that point. Let's add three more weeks to get the figures down further.

5. So, very optimistically 2 weeks from now before a fall begins, another 5 to get back to the point we were at when the restrictions were introduced, and 3 more to get far enough below that to lift restrictions. That is 10 weeks from now, as a wildly optimistic estimate.

6. In reality, the fall rates will most probably be slower than the rates of increase. That adds further time.

What this tells us is that restrictions will be around for at least 10 weeks, but most likely more. Look at Italy for an indication of time scale.

7. Rather than talking about whether we will have restrictions lifted after the 3 week review next Monday, it would be helpful for discussions to be on how we cope with the likely length of restrictions and what strategies can be developed to manage it. #CoronavirusLockdownUK