Thread by @iandonald_psych

1. The #coronavirus pandemic is a life-threatening emergency that shares a lot of similarities with other events, many of which become disasters. What we know about behaviour during those events can help us to understand what is happening during the pandemic and what should . . .

2. be happening.
The current emergency differs from many - though not all -in that it is happening relatively slowly, compared to a fire for example. A common characteristic of most emergencies is that they are uncommon and often ambiguous, especially early on. The rarity . . .

3. of events like this means that people don't have an existing 'script' of how to behave. Consequently they look to others to show them or tell the what to do. A critical issue then becomes who people look to for information and guidance. The pervasive and persuasive . . .

4. nature of social media means that there are a wide variety of potential sources of information. To ensure that people behave in the most appropriate and informed way, they need information from the most reliable sources. In the case of a fire that might be the police. . .

5. or other authority figures. In the present case the authority figure that people should use as a source of guidance is the govt and their medical and scientific advisers. They are the officials leading the equivalent of the building evacuation now the building is on fire ...

6. Research has consistently shown however that the source of the information has to be seen as authoritative, accurate, reliable and trustworthy. It helps if it is consistent. If it fails in this regard people will look elsewhere.

Research we conducted examining behaviour. . .

7. during the King's Cross Underground fire in 1987 as part of the subsequent inquiry showed this clearly. During the evacuation a number of members of the public ignored underground staff, pushing past them and carrying on with their journeys. Respect for the staff at that ...

8. time was low. When the police began the evacuation people paid attention and followed instructions. That some of those instructions in hindsight were inappropriate is not relevant. One reason for ignoring the underground staff was that respect and trust had been eroded ...

9. over time.
For most people the present emergency is just as novel as a underground fire. They need information and guidance. That guidance has to come from the govt and their experts. What we have seen over the last two weeks is eroding that trust.
First the govt. . .

10. began with an uphill battle to establish post brexit and election trust with many people. But on the whole the public stood behind what they were doing & their strategy.
The govt then appeared to do a u-turn on its crowd immunity approach. In reality that wasn't a . . .

11. u-turn, it was, rightly, adapting the strategy to new data. It's unclear that the govt was successful in making that case.
Over the last 2 weeks there have been emerging problems that have eroded the important trust in the govt as the authority. It is now questioned by . . .

12. the public and the usually Tory friendly press.

The reason for this is two fold. One is that they seem to again be changing approach, but this time to testing. They have changed which groups they say need to be tested. They also keep missing their own testing targets...

13. citing reasons that then don't seem to hold up to scrutiny.
If not testing particular groups is the sensible approach, they need to make that case, rather than promise that they will test more, and then fail to do so.
Similar is happening with PPE. The govt is ...

14. saying they are providing PPE but health service staff say they either are not receiving it or it is inadequate. The public tend to trust a doctor over a politician.
The perception is therefore growing that the govt as a source of information is less . . .

15. trustworthy, reliable, and authoritative.
If the government does not establish itself as the go-to source of guidance, people will look elsewhere, which will begin to have a hallo effect in response to other policy including social distancing and isolation, and undermine...

16. important aspects of the govt approach.
Note the difference in the area of the economic response of the govt, though not flawless, is generally accepted positively.
To stop this unfolding emergency turning into a disaster the govt has to (re)establish itself as being in...

17. control. It needs to be seen as reliable, trustworthy, an authority on the right course of action. It can not afford to be inconsistent or perceived as untruthful.
There are plenty of sources of (mis)information ready to fill the vacuum; a big task is now to stop that.