Thread by @drmusanordin

My sincere apologies 2 my Indonesian neighbors if my analysis was politically incorrect/abrasive. What happened in China/Italy & now evolving in US/UK is tragic. With a 274 million population I hope & pray that @jokowi will soonest be on top of the situation Inshallah #DoaSelalu

https://twitter.com/delunatic_one/status/1247895629453340681

Salams! This meme has been going round.
I think we need to examine the data before we make any sweeping conclusions 
 
Cured/Infected = 1487/4119=36.1%
 
Our testing is low (see graph):
1500/million
Spore is 6000/ million
Korea is 6500/million
Australia is 9000/million

So these countries will diagnose more cases (4-6X testing) than M’sia does
So their denominator (infected cases diagnosed by testing) will be bigger and thus their % will be smaller. Basic maths really! @DrAdhamBaba @KKMPutrajaya @DrDzul @theedgemalaysia @boosulyn @nazrikh

We r doing well & can do better to bring it to the level of South Korea/Taiwan/China who have flattened the epidemic curve. Malaysia’s trajectory looks promising on this chart. But there are 2 major caveats:

1.     Our testing is not robust and wide enough. We r not picking up the true no of covid cases.
2.     There are still pending 8,109 results
We need to:  
1 do more testing
2 move to apps tracking tech
3 stricter quarantine
4 leaders must be examplary of physical distancing

What is disconcerting is that 8109 test results r still pending! 
KKM labs taking bet 3-5 days to churn results which makes one question the claim to soon carry out 17K tests/day in April. 
The past 15 day average has only been 3500/day @DrAdhamBaba @KKMPutrajaya @Khairykj

Our case fatality rate (CFR) was 0.4% on 18/3 and has crept 4 fold to 65/4119=1.57% (8/4/2002) Check this trend!
In fact it should b better ie smaller if we do more test and diagnose more (bigger denominator)
Yes we have done well. But there has been an upsurge in critical cases!

If only KKM shared more ICU data! Uptrend b4 until downtrend semlm which is welcome news. There are still 76 cases in ICU & 45 are being ventilated These have relatively poorer prognosis with up to 50% mortality according to our respirologists. What is our vent survivors?

So we need to be more vigilant, diagnose earlier, intervene faster and prevent the downslide into ICU and ventilation.
This graph allows a fair and accurate comparison of us with other nations. The Chinese were sharing data explosively! Us? @DrAdhamBaba @Khairykj @KKMPutrajaya

I know some of our guys in KKM
Our ID guys (infectious diseases eg dr suresh) + anaesthesiologists/intensivists (chief dr melor and past-chief datuk jahizah) etc are top guns in their disciplines. 
I have but the utmost respect and awe of their expertise.

They are caring for our sickest covid patients. About 5% in ICU and another 15% severe covids. We trust them to steer us through this covid storm inshallah. Together we pick our brains to provide the best outcome for our rakyat and nation at both the micro and macro level.

However, naïve, unscientific and some evil minds prevalent in social media will see critical guys, those who analyze the data, question the protection of our front-liners, #PPEShortages etc as being anti-PN, anti-KKM, DAP ..what-else @DrAdhamBaba @Khairykj @DrDzul @LiewChinTong

Hello! Fr day 1 covid hit us we have been unrelenting in complementing KKM services by providing PPEs/ventilators/ultrasound/thermometers/setting up screening centers in hot spots etc. Checkout this link if you think I am making up this fantasy!
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247948…