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An interesting analogy of pandemic evolution
Why are the models considering best case/worst case with basically no middle ground?
In words here
Basically there are 2 different possible outcomes:
under control/not under control
New Zealand/USA
And when we’re talking modelling, it’s important to consider first what we’re talking about: the best case scenario or the worst.
IHME model (that predicts 66k deaths in the UK) is a *best case* scenario
@carolecadwalla @allthecitizens
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
So I just stepped on that -"Sky lanterns for the NHS" campaign
(WTF?)
So first thing: Due to the expressed "concerns and sentiments" this is no longer a fundraising campaign in support of the NHS.
It's still inviting people to use sky lights -but for a different fundraising campaign!
(As apparently, they seem to think that was the problem? 🤔)
Please note if you don't bother to scroll down, it may not that be obvious the campaign is no longer a "support the UK NHS" campaign
Read 7 tweets
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Say hello to the UK, the only country in the world that manages to have plenty of empty hospital beds in the middle of a pandemic.
Probably it’s better not to count all the deaths so that looks good instead of shocking.
“Lets not take in the patients needing it the most -like in nightingale- so that the numbers look great and we can unlock the country!
We’ll then blame impeding disaster on unpredictable doom given the pretty -don’t say partial- data we had)“

“Who cares after all it’s mostly plebs dying.”
Read 5 tweets
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
"A clear message"
(Also, apparently he can't work for a month or two -time to recover-, but still no need to recall Parliament: The guy who doesn't know where any countries are and the woman who can't even read numbers will take care of everything.)
Also -about PM's health.
Not a lot of examples of people needing the ICU being dismissed so fast, &being able to stand and to speak quite well right afterwards. Mostly counter-examples.
Possible explanations:
1/ The PM wasn't that sick. It was just a precaution as he's PM. (1/2)
2/ The PM was really sick but he has supernatural strength.
In any cases -more than 1 study show the virus can sometimes reactivate after a while, and sometimes make people with mild syndromes really sick.
Unless there's a private ICU at Checkers "maybe" not the safest solution.
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