Excellent analysis of likely 2020 emissions impacts of Covid-19 from @DrSimEvans, projecting a 3%+ decline relative to 2019. Projections have worsened since my piece a few weeks back, as some firmer numbers on economic and energy use changes have come in. carbonbrief.org/analysis-coron…
There are still huge uncertainties in both likely Q2 impacts and the degree of economic/energy use recovery in Q3/Q4. I'd probably update my own personal "likely" range to be a 1% to 5% reduction, but it could easily be > 5% if Covid-19 reemerges in a big way post-lockdown.
Its important to (re)emphasize that these emission reductions are not worth celebrating. Without substantive changes in the way we produce energy they will be fleeting and have minimal impacts on longer-term warming.
Economic recessions tend to divert attention away from climate issues, and slow down investments/deployment in clean energy and other decarbonization technologies. Unless recovery efforts include substantial investments with climate co-benefits its hard to see any silver lining.
