Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Thurs 9 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US & UK are still upward slopes on a log scale, i.e each day generally brings more deaths than the last
• Japan death toll tracking Italy

All live charts, free to read: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US death toll still ramping up. Yesterday I said it could be world’s highest within ~5 days, now looks more like 2-3 days 📈
• Australia still looking promising
• India still steepening ⚠️

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Early signs that new infections in US *may* be peaking, but need to wait a few days yet...
• Austria’s new cases still falling. They plan to ease lockdown next week; will the line bend back up?

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Cases in cumulative form:
• Looks like I’m gonna have to extend my y-axis again to accommodate the US...
• Reported Indian infections picking up speed after slow early pace. I’d say this owes as much to more testing as accelerating outbreak

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational region daily deaths:
• NY death toll rising every day; higher than anywhere else in the world at any point
• London still on trend of more deaths each day than the last
• We’ve got good enough data to reinstate French regions 🇫🇷

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within days

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now small multiples of daily deaths in 68 subnational regions:
• We’re now showing all UK countries (Northern Ireland added); England still accelerating much more steeply than the rest
• 14 US states now, several looking steep
• Sicily peaked early: do islands fare better?

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 45 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Brazil & Turkey tracking China
• India accelerating sharply

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 65 countries:
• Early action in Australia & New Zealand means they may have turned the corner early 🇦🇺🇳🇿📉
• Saudi Arabia added
• Japan’s delayed outbreak continues ⚠️

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read Tuesday’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporated two of your suggestions today.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Have a good night, folks 👍

Oh, and a few questions coming in about our France numbers, as they’re lower than those from other sources.

The reason: 100s of French deaths in nursing homes were published on one day, producing a huge artificial jump, so we’re using hospital deaths only.

My full statement:

And yes, we did have dinner tonight.

Chinese dumplings again, but this time filled with salmon.

We're now watching Train to Busan. Enjoy your evenings, everyone