Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Sun 12 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths:
• US & UK still trending up, Italy the only other to slope up at same stage
• Success stories in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => gentle slopes

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US death toll now the highest worldwide, approaching 22,000 and still rising fast 📈
• UK curve still matching Italy’s, but death toll could end up higher
• Australia still looking promising

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Signs still point toward new infections in the US peaking
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early: New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Australia ✭

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Cases in cumulative form:
• US has passed 500k confirmed cases
• Turkey still battling one of the world’s most severe outbreaks
• Curves flattened early in Austria, Australia, Norway

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• Early signs that NY daily deaths may be peaking, but need to wait and see
• Same in London, though Easter weekend reporting is having a big downward effect on UK numbers

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within 3-4 days, still rising faster than any other region at this stage of its outbreak

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions, grouped by country
• Sao Paulo: more deaths every day
• Daily deaths rising across Germany
• US states with major urban centres having worst outbreaks
• Sicily, Sardinia, Balearics all low curves: do islands fare better?

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 48 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia flat-ish so far
• In Europe, Austria & Denmark faring well

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 68 countries:
• Early action in Australia & New Zealand means they may have turned the corner early 🇦🇺🇳🇿📉
• Austria & Norway also locked down early and new cases falling

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read Tuesday’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

We’ve also changed our data sourcing recently.

I’m no longer happy using Worldometers, so now sourcing all data directly from official country sources (health ministries etc).

This takes longer, but given my concerns over data quality on covid, I think this is important.

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Happy Easter, folks :-)