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If this is the best attack ad Trump can come up with, he might as well start clearing out the Oval Office for Biden right now.
First of all, most Americans — even those who hold China at fault — do not care about coronavirus as a foreign policy issue, which is how Trump is trying to frame it.

Second of all, the ad doesn't really draw a clear line from Biden to China. It's all over the place.
Biden's ads are much, much simpler for a swing voter to understand: There's a public health crisis, Trump is fucking it up, vote for me and I'll protect you.

If Trump's only response is "but China," that's not going to persuade many voters.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
In about an hour, returns for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race are coming in.

The basic state of the race: turnout is up everywhere. Slightly more up in rurals than cities vs 2019. But there will likely be a slight swing left in many counties due to Dem primary.
The big question that will decide the race is, which is bigger, the rural turnout surge or the leftward shift from Dem primary turnout?
If I had to make a forecast: I'd say 52% chance of Karofsky winning.

I give her an edge, but a tiny one. It's basically a coin flip. So you shouldn't be shocked if I'm wrong and Kelly pulls it off.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
Utah won't be competitive this cycle, but there are many reasons Republicans are losing ground there.

The state is very young, educated, and suburbanized. It's also very white and very religious, which works to the GOP's favor, but Mormons can be tough to pin down ideologically.
The sense I get is, white Mormons tend to be very socially conservative, but also more skeptical than white Protestants of the idea Trump is an "instrument of God" and more bothered by his moral failings.

So you see lots of them hating both sides, feeling politically homeless.
I think once Trump is out and once the GOP nominates someone less obviously a walking cautionary Bible story, you'll see Utah drift right, but not all the way back to where they were.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
I'm a Biden supporter, and a former Clinton supporter. And let me tell you what I learned from 2016.

Stop yelling at undecided Sanders supporters that they support Trump if they don't vote Biden. They don't. They know how bad Trump is.

Start telling them why Biden is better.
Tell them that Biden wants to lower the Medicare age, expand Medicaid everywhere, create a cheap public option that ensures everyone can afford health care.

Tell them that Biden supports forgiving student debt for all middle class borrowers.
Tell them that Biden will appoint judges in the mold of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, break right-wing control of the courts and allow rulings like Citizens United, Shelby County, and Rucho to be overturned.

Tell them Biden has a climate plan based on the Green New Deal and IPCC models.
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