Thread by @MarkkuPeltonen

Use of care and mortality due to corona in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Estonia; data from yesterdays 9.4 reports.

Read the whole thread. (English version)

Fig 1. Number of persons in intensive care per day. Measures the burden on intensive care capacity. 1/x

Fig 2. Number of persons in hospital care per day. One person can be counted for several days. Measures the burden on hospital capacity. 2/x

Fig 3. Mortality per million population. 3/x

Fig 4. Mortality per million population on log-scale, by days since 2/million deaths in the country. Same data as fig 3, but y-axis helps to understand rate of change, and time-scale unified. 4/x

Fig 5(5). Absolute number of deaths by days since 10th death in the country.
(Attempts to get same starting point/phase of the epidemic for all countries). 5/x

Hospital care, other countries except Finland and Sweden still going down. It seems Finland is clearly levelling off, and maybe even from a slightly lower level than the others? The rate of increase in Sweden is also slowing but might take a bit longer to turn down. 6/x

Lots of talks about exit-stategies; Norway and Denmark introduced initial plans. The measures here, hospital care and mortality, are “late” measures. If changes in these, then at population level the changes have occurred, what, 2-3 weeks ago (?). (Or changes in case-mix). 7/x

The role of testing in the exit; public discussion lacking concrete ideas how to do it. Fully agree it is essential, but the issues I have with just “increase testing” are summarised (in Swedish) in this (paywall): svd.se/masstestning-m… 8/

I will take a small break with these reports; but will be back on Monday.
In the meantime, comments and critique are most welcome, as always!
Happy and safe holidays! 9/9