Thread by @nithyavraman

An update on the COVID-19 outbreak in LA:

We've seen multiple days with new record deaths from the virus this week. Social distancing remains essential.

The good news: we *may* have passed the outbreak's peak. That means it's time to start looking ahead to what's next. (thread)

A great sign: case growth appears to be slowing in LA. The largest jump in cases so far happened back on 4/4.

As always, lack of testing makes case numbers difficult to trust -- but hospitalizations are slowing too. On 4/2, they grew by 20%. Growth has been lower ever since.

There have been multiple days this week with large increases in LA’s COVID-19 deaths. But there are signs of hope in the numbers -- they've been up and down, not increasing consistently.

Today, for example, we saw significantly fewer deaths than yesterday.

The relatively low impact of the outbreak in LA is the *RESULT* of shutting down the city. It was not an overreaction. It has saved thousands of lives.

We have plenty of evidence from other cities of the nightmare we have avoided -- and what awaits us if we don't stay vigilant.

Last week, I expressed hope that LA could be a place that could share medical resources with cities that needed them more.

I'm thrilled to see that already appears to be happening, with Governor Newsom shipping 500 ventilators to New York. politico.com/states/califor…

Based on new data, a disproportionate number of black Angelenos have died of COVID-19. Black residents make up 17% of deaths but only 9% of the county.

Like so many crises, this one is the product of decades of disinvestment and institutional racism. latimes.com/california/sto…

Shelter-in-place in LA County has now been extended to 5/15. That's the right thing to do: reducing social distancing prematurely would cause the outbreak to roar back.

But it also increases the already-urgent need for relief for the millions in LA who have been hit financially.

The reality is, LA won't be back to normal for a while. Restaurants and gathering places won't reopen soon. Fewer people would go out even if they did.

What we need now: urgent action on longterm relief for *all* unemployed Angelenos and public funding to create new, safe jobs.

We need better pandemic solutions for homeless Angelenos, too. Cramming people together in rec centers is not safe. Today SF announced a huge outbreak in a shelter set up like ours -- we should take that as a warning.

Hotel rooms are being made available, but not quickly enough.

Just as LA's low-income communities have seen disproportionate impacts from the virus, they'll suffer most from the recession it causes.

We have to plan for 20% unemployment at this point. Without major intervention, our city is facing economic tragedy at an unprecedented scale.

There isn't a passive way out of this. We can't just reopen the economy and hope it recovers. Many would die and many jobs wouldn't return.

This crisis, even after the virus is weakened, requires the most urgent economic mobilization of our lives. That action must be taken now.