The U.S.' coronavirus outbreak appears to have gone linear, with about 33,000 new cases and 2000 deaths each day. But so far there is no sign of a peak and decline.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
The same thing appears to be true of New York and New Jersey, site of the worst outbreak in the U.S.
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
I expected New York and New Jersey to peak and decline like Italy did, and other states that shut down later to follow after a week or so. But if you look at the state curves, you'll see this didn't happen. Everywhere basically went linear at once.
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
It's possible that most U.S. states will peak and decline next week, following Italy and Spain's precedent.
But it's also possible that half-assed U.S. shutdowns are simply much less effectual than Italy and Spain's harsh lockdowns, and that cases/deaths keep going up linearly.
But it's also possible that half-assed U.S. shutdowns are simply much less effectual than Italy and Spain's harsh lockdowns, and that cases/deaths keep going up linearly.
If that's true, the U.S. will have to implement much harsher lockdowns, probably enforced by police, and suffer more weeks of economic devastation.
So let's hope that the peak and decline comes soon, because that would suck.
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So let's hope that the peak and decline comes soon, because that would suck.
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The reason I'm worried that the U.S.' half-assed lockdowns will flatten the curve but fail to suppress the epidemic: Washginton.
Washington's outbreak has been linear for over two weeks now. In all that time, they haven't managed to make the daily rate of new cases fall.
Washington's outbreak has been linear for over two weeks now. In all that time, they haven't managed to make the daily rate of new cases fall.
Italy is managing to suppress its outbreak, so I had thought the U.S. would too.
But Google mobility data shows Americans moving around and occupying public spaces a LOT more than Italians.
google.com/covid19/mobili…
I had hoped that was mostly because of people driving to the store instead of walking. But maybe not. Maybe people just aren't following lockdown.
google.com/covid19/mobili…
I had hoped that was mostly because of people driving to the store instead of walking. But maybe not. Maybe people just aren't following lockdown.
I really hope the U.S. outbreak starts to decline over the next week. Because continuing to cruise along at 2000 deaths a day indefinitely is pretty damn unacceptable...
