1/A quick thread about the medium-term future of our coronavirus response (i.e. between lockdown and treatment/vaccine).
Some have suggested we use variolation (i.e. try to intentionally infect each person with a mild dose of coronavirus) as a way to get herd immunity...
Some have suggested we use variolation (i.e. try to intentionally infect each person with a mild dose of coronavirus) as a way to get herd immunity...
2/This is probably a bad idea when facing a novel virus like this one. @tylercowen explains why:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
3/But it IS possible that a small exposure to coronavirus produces mild or even asymptomatic cases in many people -- and then confers immunity afterwards.
We don't know yet, but it's possible.
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
We don't know yet, but it's possible.
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
4/As scientists learn more about the way coronavirus spreads, they may discover that a certain type of interaction -- say, walking around outside with masks -- usually leads to minor exposures and mild cases.
5/If scientists do find that this is the case, it might make sense for policymakers to allow these kinds of activities immediately. Thus relieving a bit of the pressure on the economy while also supporting a form of statistical variolation.
6/In other words, depending on what the science says, it may be worth lifting some parts of lockdowns early as a way to move a bit toward herd immunity while also letting parts of the economy start to recover.
7/Of course, this could be a grim calculation, because it still might lead to a few deaths -- say, if someone on the street sneezes on someone's face and they get a heavy dose and die, or if someone gets a mild case but dies of complications.
8/But in the end the number of lives saved by greater immunity could be greater than the number of lives lost to extreme cases like that. And the partial economic restart would just be an added bonus.
9/Note that this approach might make #TestAndTrace harder, because it would mean a lot more (mild) positive cases to trace. So that's a drawback, because it could overwhelm the system and make severe-case spreading harder to monitor.
10/But I expect that as science starts to tell us more about how this virus works, people will be thinking about (if not openly discussing) calculations like this one.
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