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18k tests (352,974 total) 12776 people (282,374 total)

5288 +ve (84,279 total) 3.4 tests to get a positive. Indicative of broader testing/ more recoveries.

737 died IN HOSPITAL (10,612 total). 12.59% Easter Sunday. There are delays over w/e let alone bank holiday w/es.
Expect a “catch up” increase during next week.

STILL NO LINE FOR COMMUNITY DEATHS. Not good enough.
I attach @Egbert_PengWu cumulative charts.

I Also attach @murtaman analysis and charts. This one shows more colourfully the indication that broader or more discharge testing is likely being undertaken.

Also a link from @JIANFENGWU9 to covid19uk.live for further analysis

This continuing refusal from the @DHSCgovuk to provide a second line for community deaths is not excusable any more. Certainly without an explanation beyond “Look in the ONS data”.

Look at 27/3/2020 declared deaths an certificated deaths.

Over 5k positives and the bulk taking place as part of respiratory admissions tells its own story. We should be having these data broken down by age/sex/ ethnicity/ hospital or ICU bed and location by now @PaulBrandITV

That reveals the pressure points and risks ahead.
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More from @fascinatorfun see all

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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Mortality associated with CV-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

“Data from 5 European countries suggest that care home residents have so far accounted for between 42% - 57% of all deaths related to COVID-19”

NB ⁦@DHSCgovuk⁩ ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mor…
“it is important to ensure that the levels of infections & deaths of residents & staff are not ignored & there’s a danger that, by not attempting to measure them, opportunities to inform decisions that policymakers in terms of resource allocations to the care sector may be missed
Read 4 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust and what should we ignore?

“On 27 March the Gov announced that 926 Covid-19 deaths had so far taken place in English hospitals, NHS England now reports that the true figure was 1,649”

That is 723 deaths out. 78% theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
There is a time lag between a death and its report. Sometimes a time lag of weeks. It’d be helpful if we could understand the full extent of the delays and the reasons.

But knowing the number of deaths that occurred each day shows the true scale of the disease and the curve
Different types of predictive modelling.

Important to have accurate and up to date data for effective predictions. That means large scale testing, accurate data in deaths, including deaths in the community, hospital and ICU admissions.
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Not only has the US crossed the 20k barrier, apparently omitting many community deaths, it looks to me as if Italy will today or tomorrow too. I don’t know if they are yet including community deaths.

Belgium has been hit v hard-254 deaths in 1 day. 3.6k total (pop 11.35 mill)
Scale that up to U.K. pop and that is the equivalent of c 1400 deaths in a day and 20,880 deaths in total.

Poor Belgium. 💔

Is Belgium counting community deaths do you know @GuitarMoog ?
I believe Belgium had riots in the street yesterday after the police arrested someone (I think for being our in the street without a good excuse). Videos of lots of young men attacking a police vehicle, smashing out windows.

Very shaking,
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