The lesson of governmental responses to COVID-19 so far would seem to be roughly "governments eventually do the right thing, but it takes them longer than it should".
If that's the case, it would call for short-term pessimism re: most counties' ability to implement enough testing and tracing, etc. in time to get the economy revving up with the next 2 months.
But it might also call for some medium-term optimism, perhaps, for the summer/fall.
But it might also call for some medium-term optimism, perhaps, for the summer/fall.
The thing is, testing/tracing is *so* much better than the alternatives (either keeping the entire economy shut down for 6-18 months or watching 100000s die) that even if you think governments are quite kludgy and even incompetent, they may find their way there eventually.
